- The Astros are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Houston Astros (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on Friday, June 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 36-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 30-32 ATS.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -110 | -110 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -110 | -110 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+14.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+12.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+11.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games at home (+19.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+10.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+10.30 Units / 85% ROI)
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corey Julks | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Jeremy Pena | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Corey Julks | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corey Julks | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Logan Allen | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+18.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+4.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 33-30 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1.22% ROI).
- 36-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -1.38% ROI
- 30-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.4 Units / -7.75% ROI
- 32-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -1.23% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 30-32 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -3.65% ROI).
- 29-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -13.95% ROI
- 21-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.5 Units / -30.24% ROI
- 38-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.05 Units / 21.91% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has allowed an OBP of just .195 (133 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (50/184) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 37% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (173/466) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Cristian Javier allowed a batting average of just .086 vs right-handed batters (best)– 100th Percentile and .326 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (eighth worst among qualified SPs)– 10th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has an ERA of 1.90 (23.2 IP) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 4.43 — 96th Percentile.
Logan Allen has a first-pitch strike rate of 77% (39/51) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed an OBP of .375 (24 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — 3rd highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: .261 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 46% (239/519) against Logan Allen in non-two strike counts this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 90th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Astros are 43-29 (.597) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Astros are 55-27 (.671) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Astros are 142-83 (.631) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 24-75 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Guardians are 8-18 (.308) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Guardians are just 2-9 (.182) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 3-25 (.107) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 426 strikeouts in 2,439 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have won 94% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have just 806 strikeouts in 4,520 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 62% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,105 strikeouts in 6,202 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,560 strikeouts in 8,463 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .654 (2,261 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.12 (979.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 126 of 2,017 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 38 of 557 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.71 (990.0 IP) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
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