Astros vs Mariners Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 22

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 22, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (61-32) are -125 favorites vs the Mariners (51-42)
  • Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (8-4), 4.08 ERA
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales (5-9), 3.49 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Houston Astros (-125) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+105) on Friday, July 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Astros vs Mariners Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 61-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 49-44 ATS.

Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 +125O 8.5 -115-125
Mariners +1.5 -155U 8.5 -105+105

Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 72.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 28 away games (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jake Meyers has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+8.05 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Michael Brantley has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 33 games at home (+19.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 60 games (+18.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Over in 49 of his last 85 games (+13.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 games at home (+10.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Abraham Toro has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)

Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Frazier 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Cal Raleigh 0.5 +300 0.5 -450
Carlos Santana 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Eugenio Suarez 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
J.P. Crawford 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Frazier 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Cal Raleigh 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Carlos Santana 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Eugenio Suarez 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
J.P. Crawford 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Frazier 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Cal Raleigh 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Carlos Santana 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Eugenio Suarez 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
J.P. Crawford 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marco Gonzales 3.5 +100 3.5 -140
Jose Urquidy 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 80 games (+21.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 91 games (+19.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 77 games (+15.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+10.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 25 games (+19.35 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+11.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.15 Units / 47% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 48-45 against the Run Line (+3.65 Units / 3.34% ROI).

  • 61-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.25 Units / 7.31% ROI
  • 33-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.4 Units / -26.97% ROI
  • 56-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 18.93% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 49-44 against the Run Line (-0.4 Units / -0.32% ROI).

  • 51-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.15 Units / 8.23% ROI
  • 44-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -6.94% ROI
  • 47-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -1.64% ROI

Jose Urquidy has a strikeout rate of just 34% (74 SO in 219 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (55/288) against Jose Urquidy this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 13th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .475 (19-for-40) against Jose Urquidy on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (58/174) against Jose Urquidy this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — ninth Percentile.

Marco Gonzales: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 27% (53 SO in 198 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 12% (53 SO in 432 PAs) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (609/1,295) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Marco Gonzales has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (1,257/2,748) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 33-4 (.892) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 31-18 (.633) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Astros are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 21-4 (.840) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are 36-6 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Mariners are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 37-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .267 (4,984 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Astros hitters have just 576 strikeouts in 3,112 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros hitters have an OPS of .770 (6,579 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .160 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

The Mariners are batting just .300 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Mariners hitters have drawn 106 walks in 942 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 55% with two-strikes this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (16 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.78 (379.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.53 (826.2 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
  • John Crawford (Mariners): Finger, Day-to-Day
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.