- The Astros (63-32) are -115 favorites vs the Mariners (51-44)
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (8-4), 2.66 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Robert Ray (8-6), 3.53 ERA
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Houston Astros (-115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-105) on Sunday, July 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Astros vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 63-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 49-46 ATS.
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | O 7 -110 | -115 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -185 | U 7 -110 | -105 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 70.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 30 away games (+10.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 away games (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+8.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.05 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 35 games at home (+21.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 45 of his last 62 games (+18.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Lewis | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Kyle Lewis | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Lewis | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -140 |
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 82 games (+23.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 93 games (+21.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 79 games (+17.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+8.20 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 27 games (+17.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+11.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 50-45 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 5.52% ROI).
- 63-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.25 Units / 8.46% ROI
- 33-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.5 Units / -28.45% ROI
- 58-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.55 Units / 20.41% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 49-46 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -2.6% ROI).
- 51-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 6.32% ROI
- 44-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -8.82% ROI
- 49-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 0.28% ROI
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 70% (190/273) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (216/318) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (72/105) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (144/213) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Robert Ray: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Robbie Ray has allowed a slugging percentage of .816 (31 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .416 — first Percentile.
Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (787/1,578) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (452/1,012) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (493/947) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 56-9 (.862) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Astros are 33-18 (.647) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Astros are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 37-2 (.949) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 37-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 6-40 (.130) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Mariners are 20-6 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 590 strikeouts in 3,182 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 1,346 strikeouts in 6,654 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 1,656 strikeouts in 8,223 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .160 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .300 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% this month (20 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (842.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 5 of 156 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Jacob Meyers (Astros): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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