- The Mariners are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Houston Astros (+110) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-135) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Astros vs Mariners Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 16-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 15-16 ATS.
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -200 | O 6.5 +105 | +110 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 6.5 -125 | -135 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+14.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+12.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+12.20 Units / 122% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 71% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 16-15 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -1.22% ROI).
- 16-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -15.32% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 2.5% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -10.06% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 15-16 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -4.59% ROI).
- 15-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -8.46% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.85 Units / -5.31% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -3.89% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 57% (150/265) against Cristian Javier this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (55/150) against Cristian Javier this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown fastballs up 73% of the time (230/317) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (57/227) against Cristian Javier on non-fastballs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (20/51) against Luis Castillo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .157 (83 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 92nd Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .117 (9 Total Bases / 77 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — 95th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OPS of just .505 (135 PA’s) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .697 — 94th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 40-20 (.667) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Astros are 59-34 (.634) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Astros are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Astros are 58-34 (.630) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 2-12 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Mariners are 8-78 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Mariners are 34-14 (.708) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are just 0-5 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 367 strikeouts in 2,151 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 747 strikeouts in 4,232 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 46 strikeouts in 301 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .218 at home since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners hitters have pulled 54% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .226 (133 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .266 (289 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros have allowed 3.27 runs per game (304/93) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mariners have won just just 0% of the time this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 23 of 431 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Back, D10
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