- The Mariners are -140 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: Brandon Bielak
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros (+115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-140) on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Astros vs Mariners Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 17-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 16-17 ATS.
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -115 | +115 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -105 | -140 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 61.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+15.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+14.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+12.20 Units / 101% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+9.90 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Miller | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 away games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+3.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 17-16 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -1.14% ROI).
- 17-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -14.81% ROI
- 18-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 7.85% ROI
- 14-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -15.25% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 16-17 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -4.3% ROI).
- 16-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -8.68% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.4% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -9.56% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Brandon Bielak slider was June 30th, 2021. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his slider. — Bryce Elder has the longest active streak at 22.
Brandon Bielak has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 21st, 2022 — Corey Kluber has the longest active streak at 9.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (2/10) against Bryce Miller — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed an OPS of just .250 (20 PA’s) — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .690 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Bryce Miller — tied for 8th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .240 — 92nd Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 41-21 (.661) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Astros are 59-35 (.628) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Astros are 108-2 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Astros are 5-3 (.625) when underdogs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 2-12 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Mariners are 8-78 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Mariners are 79-3 (.963) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Mariners are just 0-6 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 375 strikeouts in 2,181 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 755 strikeouts in 4,262 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .266 (289 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .210 (143 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Mariners are batting just .223 at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Mariners are batting just .181 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros have allowed 3.32 runs per game (315/95) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have 64 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 4th most in MLB.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Kolten Wong (Mariners): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Back, D10
Bet now on Astros vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
