- The Astros are -115 favorites vs the Mariners
- Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr., – ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The Houston Astros (-115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-105) on Saturday, October 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07pm EDT in Seattle for this postseason game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Astros vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 108-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 86-80 ATS.
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | O 7 -120 | -115 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -190 | U 7 +100 | -105 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+10.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dylan Moore has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+11.65 Units / 97% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -120 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 151 games (+29.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 92 of their last 162 games (+25.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 101 of their last 148 games (+21.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 145 games (+15.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 away games (+8.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games at home (+17.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 98 games (+15.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+13.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games at home (+10.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 98 games (+5.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 87-77 against the Run Line (+11.45 Units / 5.92% ROI).
- 108-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.3 Units / 5.98% ROI
- 61-93 when betting on the total runs Over for -40 Units / -22.27% ROI
- 93-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +25.2 Units / 13.87% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 86-80 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -2.77% ROI).
- 92-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 2.21% ROI
- 77-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -5.92% ROI
- 81-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -1.55% ROI
Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (18/157) against Lance McCullers with runners in scoring position since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (53/357) against Lance McCullers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (1,403/1,761) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Lance McCullers has walked 61 of 431 left-handed batters (14%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
George Kirby: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .381 (67 GB hits out of 176 GBs) against George Kirby this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .233 — 0 Percentile.
George Kirby has allowed a BABIP of .387 against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .295 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .312 (65-for-208) against George Kirby’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .226 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 53% (34/64) against George Kirby on the first pitch of at-bats — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 69-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Mariners are 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 46-37 (.554) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Mariners are 47-10 (.825) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .218 at home since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Mariners are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Astros pitchers this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Jesse Winker (Mariners): Neck, D10
- Samuel Haggerty (Mariners): Groin, D10
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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