• The Mariners are -145 favorites vs the Astros
• Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Astros / Mariners TV Channel: ESPN

The Houston Astros (+120) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-145) on September 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 pm in Seattle, WA.

This season, the Astros are 78-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 58-98 ATS.

Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:

• Astros starting pitcher: Ethan Pecko 1-0, 3.77 ERA
• Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 9-11, 4.26 ERA

Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

• Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+20.40 Units / 340% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+15.25 Units / 67% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 51% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+11.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Cam Smith has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+16.90 Units / 188% ROI)
• George Kirby has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.00 Units / 54% ROI)
• Dominic Canzone has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.05 Units / 44% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.85 Units / 37% ROI)
• George Kirby has hit the Strikeouts Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 away games (+12.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 away games (+11.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+10.05 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 away games (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.05 Units / 20% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 80-77 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -1.29% ROI).

• 78-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.5 Units / -6.1% ROI
• 75-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -2.3% ROI
• 71-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -6.48% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 58-98 against the Run Line (-38.05 Units / -20.83% ROI).

• 73-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.05 Units / -16.15% ROI
• 81-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.4 Units / 4.27% ROI
• 67-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.65 Units / -12.57% ROI

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB.

The Astros are just 25-33 (.431) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face the Mariners (14th fewest runs allowed).

The Astros are 66-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are just 2-73 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are just 26-39 (.400) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Astros (19th in runs scored).

The Mariners are just 23-26 (.469) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are just 2-70 (.028) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

Astros hitters have 46 extra-base hits out of 177 total hits (just 26%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Astros hitters have an OBP of just .235 (3,103 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Astros hitters are slugging .412 on the road this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Astros hitters are slugging .411 this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

Mariners hitters are slugging just .477 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OPS of just .652 (1,970 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are batting just .220 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .364 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Astros pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 60% of their games this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Mariners pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 66% this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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