- The Astros are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Houston Astros (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Monday, August 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Astros vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 68-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 54-65 ATS.
Astros vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +125 | O 8 -115 | -135 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -105 | +115 |
Astros vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 67.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+12.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+11.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 away games (+10.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+10.15 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 29 games (+10.10 Units / 35% ROI)
Marlins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Marlins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Marlins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 84 games (+10.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 34 away games (+6.14 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+5.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 88 games (+5.05 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 96 games (+4.45 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.68 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+7.99 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games at home (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 60 games at home (+4.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 61-58 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -0.2% ROI).
- 68-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.42% ROI
- 58-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -5.08% ROI
- 58-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -3.83% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 54-65 against the Run Line (-23.35 Units / -14.78% ROI).
- 62-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.58% ROI
- 53-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -9.93% ROI
- 60-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.45 Units / 1.12% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (901/2,111) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (120/335) against Framber Valdez this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (863/1,870) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (470/987) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (261/548) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (538/1,149) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 19 of 487 batters (4%) this season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 96th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 71-35 (.670) after a loss since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 82-12 (.872) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 34-17 (.667) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 90-23 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Marlins are just 8-20 (.286) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Marlins are 38-6 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Marlins are just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 552 strikeouts in 3,104 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 932 strikeouts in 5,185 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Astros hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 121 double plays in 857 opportunities (14%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.39 (1237.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.27 (2506.2 IP) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Rib, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- José Abreu (Astros): Back, Day-to-Day
- José Abreu (Astros): Back, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Phillip Maton (Astros): Elbow, D15
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