- The Astros are -110 favorites vs the Marlins
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Houston Astros (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Astros vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 69-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 56-65 ATS.
Astros vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 +100 | -110 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -120 | -110 |
Astros vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+12.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+11.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+11.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 30 games (+9.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jacob Stallings has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.75 Units / 77% ROI)
Marlins vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Marlins vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Justin Verlander | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 86 games (+9.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 36 away games (+5.59 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 98 games (+4.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 48 games (+3.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 27 away games (+3.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+7.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+5.98 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+5.84 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 53% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 61-60 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -1.5% ROI).
- 69-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.19% ROI
- 59-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.8 Units / -5.03% ROI
- 59-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -3.8% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 56-65 against the Run Line (-21.35 Units / -13.27% ROI).
- 63-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.44% ROI
- 54-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.8 Units / -9.8% ROI
- 61-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 1.07% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .498 (521 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .710 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (237/439) this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .345 (258 Total Bases / 747 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .480 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (1,223/2,986) in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed three-ball counts to 23% of batters they faced (174/772 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 0 Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed three-ball counts to 16% of batters they faced (174/1,105 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .269 (334 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 13th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 34% (117/339) against Jesus Luzardo when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are 37-18 (.673) after a home loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros are 79-17 (.823) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 33-19 (.635) after a loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are 7-49 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 15-67 (.183) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Marlins are just 31-67 (.316) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Marlins are just 6-29 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 556 strikeouts in 3,145 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 936 strikeouts in 5,226 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .299 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins have grounded into 123 double plays this season — most in MLB.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 123 double plays in 864 opportunities (14%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.27 (2524.0 IP) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Rib, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- José Abreu (Astros): Back, D10
- José Abreu (Astros): Back, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Phillip Maton (Astros): Elbow, D15
Bet now on Astros vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
