- The Astros are -115 favorites vs the Mets
- Astros vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Mets TV Channel: ATV+
The Houston Astros (-115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-105) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Astros are 40-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 38-40 ATS.
Astros vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco 8-2, 2.35 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 3-5, 4.52 ERA
Astros vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -115 | -115 |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -105 | -105 |
Astros vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+15.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 63 games (+18.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 69 games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+9.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 38-42 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -3.44% ROI).
- 40-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -10.9% ROI
- 28-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.25 Units / -28.94% ROI
- 49-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.1 Units / 20.37% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 38-40 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -4.44% ROI).
- 39-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -1.81% ROI
- 39-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.45 Units / 0.53% ROI
- 35-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.25 Units / -8.76% ROI
Mets vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Mets vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Mets vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Ronel Blanco (HOU) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .163 (48-for-294) against Ronel Blanco this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .200 (26-for-130) against Ronel Blanco in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .319 — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 19 of 127 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (43/100) against Ronel Blanco on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 50% (457/910) when ahead in the count since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 58% (213/368) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (615/1,044) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (426/744) in two strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are just 0-30 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .057.
The Astros are 168-24 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Astros are 118-81 (.593) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Astros are 109-30 (.784) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .057.
The Mets are just 26-10 (.722) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Mets are just 31-6 (.838) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .943.
The Mets are just 22-9 (.710) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 789 strikeouts in 4,532 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,289/9,267 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .276 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters are slugging .440 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .771 (837 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .970 (255 PA’s) against LHP this month (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros have allowed 3.75 runs per game (746/199) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 389.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 396.9
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 68 of 702 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Mets pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets pitchers have walked 303 of 2,993 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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