- The Astros (45-27) are -120 favorites vs the Mets (47-27)
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (5-5), 3.67 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (8-3), 4.42 ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The Houston Astros (-120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+100) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Astros vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 45-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 42-32 ATS.
Astros vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -105 | -120 |
| Mets | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -115 | +100 |
Astros vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.35 Units / 123% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+7.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
Mets vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Mets vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Mets vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+19.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 59 games (+16.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games (+11.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+7.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 53 games (+6.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 28 games at home (+17.02 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 74 games (+14.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games at home (+13.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 74 games (+10.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 36-36 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 2.34% ROI).
- 45-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 5.82% ROI
- 23-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.55 Units / -32.51% ROI
- 45-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.6 Units / 24.5% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 42-32 against the Run Line (+10.8 Units / 12.09% ROI).
- 47-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.5 Units / 14.08% ROI
- 39-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 5.32% ROI
- 31-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -13.99% ROI
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 42-7 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 25-3 (.893) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Astros are 25-16 (.610) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Astros are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are 39-8 (.830) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets are 23-17 (.575) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Mets are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .923.
The Mets are 20-4 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 523 strikeouts in 2,857 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .266 (4,615 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .188 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Astros hitters have just 161 strikeouts in 1,108 PA’s (14%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .287 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (2,815 PA’s) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (280.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .341 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
The Astros have allowed 3.32 runs per game (103/31) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have walked 131 of 2,041 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
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