Astros vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (45-27) are -120 favorites vs the Mets (47-27)
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (5-5), 3.67 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (8-3), 4.42 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Houston Astros (-120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+100) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Astros vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 45-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 42-32 ATS.

Astros vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 +135O 8 -105-120
Mets +1.5 -160U 8 -115+100

Astros vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Michael Brantley has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.35 Units / 123% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+7.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)

Mets vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
James McCann 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Mark Canha 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Starling Marte 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Alex Bregman 0.5 +425 0.5 -900

Mets vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
James McCann 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Mets vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
James McCann 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Mets vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 +125 4.5 -175
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+19.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 59 games (+16.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games (+11.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+7.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 53 games (+6.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 28 games at home (+17.02 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 74 games (+14.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games at home (+13.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 74 games (+10.80 Units / 12% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 36-36 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 2.34% ROI).

  • 45-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 5.82% ROI
  • 23-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.55 Units / -32.51% ROI
  • 45-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.6 Units / 24.5% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 42-32 against the Run Line (+10.8 Units / 12.09% ROI).

  • 47-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.5 Units / 14.08% ROI
  • 39-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 5.32% ROI
  • 31-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -13.99% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Astros are 42-7 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Astros are 25-3 (.893) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Astros are 25-16 (.610) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.

The Astros are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mets are 39-8 (.830) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are 23-17 (.575) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.

The Mets are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Mets are 20-4 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .721.

Astros hitters have just 523 strikeouts in 2,857 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .266 (4,615 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .188 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Astros hitters have just 161 strikeouts in 1,108 PA’s (14%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .287 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (2,815 PA’s) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (280.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .341 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

The Astros have allowed 3.32 runs per game (103/31) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have walked 131 of 2,041 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Mets vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.