- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez, 1.80 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams, 0.00 ERA
The Houston Astros (-145) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Monday, March 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Astros vs Nationals Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Astros are 6-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 6-6 ATS.
Astros vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | O 11.5 -105 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | U 11.5 -115 | +120 |
Astros vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jason Castro has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 10% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 7-4 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 18.48% ROI).
- 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 27.99% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -48.37% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 39.92% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -9.87% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -12.08% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.95 Units / -52.85% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 42.26% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 53% (645/1,222) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (668/757) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his non-fastball low 89% of the time (1,087/1,222) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit .444 (8-for-18) against Trevor Williams over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 12-81 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters had 63 extra-base hits out of 242 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters slugged just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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