- The Orioles (79-71) are +155 underdogs vs the Astros (99-53)
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (16-5), 2.56 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Michael Baumann (1-3), 4.28 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Houston Astros (-190) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+155) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5.
The Astros vs Orioles Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 99-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 93-55 ATS.
Astros vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 | O 7.5 -110 | -190 |
| Orioles | +1.5 | U 7.5 -110 | +155 |
Astros vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 52.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+12.55 Units / 55% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 away games (+9.40 Units / 52% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 44 of his last 63 games (+16.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.25 Units / 45% ROI)
Orioles vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Orioles vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Orioles vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Orioles vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 90 of their last 139 games (+30.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+7.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+7.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+12.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+1.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 81-70 against the Run Line (+11.8 Units / 6.57% ROI).
- 99-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.85 Units / 5.19% ROI
- 53-88 when betting on the total runs Over for -42.6 Units / -25.75% ROI
- 88-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +29.15 Units / 17.43% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 93-55 against the Run Line (+27.85 Units / 14.36% ROI).
- 79-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.55 Units / 18.16% ROI
- 65-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.65 Units / -11.47% ROI
- 77-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.65 Units / 3.44% ROI
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (109/157) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (283/415) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (339/503) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (230/346) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Baumann: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Baumann has limited playing time.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Astros are 49-30 (.620) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Astros are 12-8 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 40-14 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Astros are 5-40 (.111) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Orioles are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 59-1 (.983) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Orioles are 25-6 (.806) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Orioles are 44-32 (.579) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 685 strikeouts in 3,832 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 305 strikeouts in 1,751 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 815 strikeouts in 4,492 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 2,333 strikeouts in 11,971 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .505 (184 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Orioles are batting just .153 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .268 at home over the last 14 days (7 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .239 (184 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .307.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros have allowed 3.19 runs per game (252/79) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 396 of 5,593 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.79 (1250.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Orioles pitchers have walked 81 of 1,332 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Orioles vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- Ramón Urías (Orioles): Neck/Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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