Astros vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 27

MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
  • The Phillies are -145 favorites vs the Astros
  • Astros vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Astros / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SCHN | TBS

The Houston Astros (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Tuesday, August 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Astros are 70-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 65-66 ATS.

Astros vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 3-3, 3.94 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 11-6, 3.48 ERA

Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros+1.5 -175O 9 -120+120
Phillies -1.5 +145U 9 +100-145

Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 23 away games (+50.90 Units / 221% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+16.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+13.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+12.30 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+11.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.15 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 114 games (+19.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+15.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 13 away games (+11.70 Units / 80% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 away games (+11.10 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+14.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 57 games at home (+14.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+12.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+11.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 56 games at home (+8.95 Units / 8% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 66-65 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 1.64% ROI).

  • 70-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -4.62% ROI
  • 52-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.9 Units / -21.57% ROI
  • 76-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.55 Units / 12.78% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 65-66 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -2.35% ROI).

  • 77-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -0.6% ROI
  • 61-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -7.55% ROI
  • 65-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -1.7% ROI

Phillies vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 +210 0.5 -250
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 0.5 +230 0.5 -300
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 +260 0.5 -350
Trea Turner (PHI) 0.5 +320 0.5 -400
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550

Phillies vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Victor Caratini (HOU) 0.5 -200 0.5 +155

Phillies vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 +115 0.5 -150
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Bryce Harper (PHI) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Alec Bohm (PHI) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Yainer Diaz (HOU) 0.5 +155 0.5 -210

Phillies vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola (PHI) 5.5 +105 5.5 -140
Justin Verlander (HOU) 5.5 +125 5.5 -160

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (46/180) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .245 (768 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 181 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .540 (769 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 181 total IP; League Avg: .716 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .559 (585 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 181 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have chased 467 of Aaron Nola’s 1,016 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .333 (59-for-177) against Aaron Nola versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .207 (158-for-762) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 91st Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (159/478) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are just 0-46 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.

The Astros are 41-34 (.547) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.

The Astros are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 121-36 (.771) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are 18-11 (.621) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.

The Phillies are 7-2 (.778) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

The Phillies are 11-107 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Phillies are 67-12 (.848) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Astros hitters have just 901 strikeouts in 5,009 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,428/17,260 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.

15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (767/4,953 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .394 (236 PA’s) against LHP this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

The Phillies are batting .338 against LHP this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Phillies hitters are slugging .451 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.

The Phillies are batting .275 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.53 (2003.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Astros pitchers have walked 1,002 of 11,000 batters (9%) since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this month (23 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
  • Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.