- The Astros are -175 favorites vs the Pirates
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Houston Astros (-175) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Astros vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 5-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 5-5 ATS.
Astros vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | -175 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | U 8 -115 | +145 |
Astros vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.70 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Pirates vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.20 Units / 84% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 6-5 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.65% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -27.42% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 38.93% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -47.08% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 5-5 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -13.06% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 30.77% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -3.2% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -3.62% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has a strike rate of 78% (73/94) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has had second base stolen on him 6 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has allowed 6 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 68% (15/22) against Cristian Javier with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (4/28) against Mitch Keller this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 76% (32/42) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (53/160) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 31% (15 SO in 49 PAs) this season — 15th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 86th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Astros were 31-15 (.674) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Astros are 31-15 (.674) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Astros are 49-29 (.628) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Astros are 40-34 (.541) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Pirates are just 103-74 (.582) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Pirates are just 39-174 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Pirates are just 56-112 (.333) on the road since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Pirates are just 3-83 (.035) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 711 strikeouts in 4,013 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 331 strikeouts in 1,932 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Pirates batted just .142 with two-strikes in 2022 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .142 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have put just 28% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros have allowed 3.29 runs per game (280/85) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers walked 584 of 6,227 batters (9%) in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 14,746 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,228 of 12,752 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Hedges (Pirates): Concussion, D7
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
Bet now on Astros vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
