- The – are favorites vs the –
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Houston Astros () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Wednesday, April 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Astros vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 5-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 6-5 ATS.
Astros vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Astros vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 91% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+7.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+5.65 Units / 113% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.40 Units / 45% ROI)
Pirates vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Pirates vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Jeremy Pena | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alex Bregman | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Pirates vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Pirates vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.20 Units / 46% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -6.97% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -33.33% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.75 Units / 42.91% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.65 Units / -51.15% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 6-5 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -5.73% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 41.23% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 5.35% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -11.62% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 37% (184/502) against Jose Urquidy in 2022 — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 19% (103/541) against Jose Urquidy in 2022 — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 11th Percentile.
45% of Jose Urquidy’s called strikeouts were elevated in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 87% (27/31) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (167/448) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (2,128/4,635) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (1,336/3,269) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (53/110) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Astros were 31-15 (.674) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Astros are 31-15 (.674) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Astros are 49-29 (.628) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Astros were 41-52 (.441) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Pirates are just 103-74 (.582) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 56-112 (.333) on the road since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Pirates were just 20-85 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 711 strikeouts in 4,013 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have an average HR distance of 390.7 feet since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 399.3.
Astros hitters have just 331 strikeouts in 1,932 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .654 (3,681 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Pirates batted just .219 against LHP in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Pirates hitters had an OBP of just .280 (1,856 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.05 (711.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,231 of 12,792 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 625 of 6,652 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 303 of 3,367 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2020 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Hedges (Pirates): Concussion, D7
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
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