- The Astros (82-47) are -175 favorites vs the Rangers (58-69)
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (13-4), 2.65 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning (3-6), 4.18 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Houston Astros (-175) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (+145) on Tuesday, August 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Astros vs Rangers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 80-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 69-55 ATS.
Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +100 | O 7.5 -105 | -175 |
| Rangers | +1.5 -120 | U 7.5 -115 | +145 |
Astros vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 57.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+14.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+13.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+13.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 38 games (+24.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 24 games (+19.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 54 of his last 88 games (+18.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 39 games at home (+17.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 43 of his last 63 games at home (+13.25 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 116 games (+26.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 73 games (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 88 games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 65-61 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 3.41% ROI).
- 80-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 2.39% ROI
- 45-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -34.9 Units / -25.34% ROI
- 74-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.25 Units / 17.33% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 69-55 against the Run Line (+9.6 Units / 5.98% ROI).
- 55-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.35 Units / -9.33% ROI
- 62-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 3.94% ROI
- 52-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -11.38% ROI
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (245/354) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (291/426) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (97/138) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Framber Valdez against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 378.6 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Dane Dunning: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (27/180) against Dane Dunning this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (106/180) against Dane Dunning this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Dane Dunning has allowed an OPS of .753 (559 PA’s) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — 17th Percentile.
Dane Dunning has allowed an OBP of .335 (558 PA’s) this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 10th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Astros are 51-3 (.944) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Astros are 41-6 (.872) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Astros are 71-18 (.798) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Astros are just 3-35 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rangers are just 46-8 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Rangers are just 28-36 (.438) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Rangers are 9-8 (.529) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are 34-7 (.829) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 628 strikeouts in 3,488 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 758 strikeouts in 4,148 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 26 strikeouts in 204 PA’s (13%) against LHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 2,175 strikeouts in 11,102 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .647 (3,557 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .299 (7,482 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .297 (8,944 PA’s) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,231 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have walked 13 of 108 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.6 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.5
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 107 of 1,133 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Rangers pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 446 of 4,836 batters (9%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Spencer Howard (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
- Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Side, D15
- Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Finger, D15
- Cole Ragans (Rangers): Calf, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Pressly (Astros): Neck, D15
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Justin Verlander (Astros): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
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