- The Astros (83-47) are -140 favorites vs the Rangers (58-70)
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (7-9), 2.96 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez (10-4), 2.68 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros (-140) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (+115) on Wednesday, August 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Astros vs Rangers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 81-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 69-56 ATS.
Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -115 | -140 |
| Rangers | +1.5 -150 | U 7.5 -105 | +115 |
Astros vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+15.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+14.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 39 games (+25.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 24 games (+19.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 40 games at home (+18.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 54 of his last 89 games (+16.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 43 of his last 64 games at home (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 117 games (+27.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 74 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+3.10 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 48 of their last 89 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.85 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 66-61 against the Run Line (+6.2 Units / 4.2% ROI).
- 81-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 2.83% ROI
- 45-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -36.05 Units / -25.95% ROI
- 75-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +25.25 Units / 17.91% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 69-56 against the Run Line (+8.2 Units / 5.06% ROI).
- 55-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.35 Units / -9.96% ROI
- 62-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 3.07% ROI
- 53-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -10.56% ROI
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (452/887) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier has struck out 39% (85/219) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (69/266) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (23/106) against Cristian Javier on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Martín Pérez: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% (222/1,030) against Martin Perez this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 14th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 50% (180/357) against Martin Perez this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 84th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 43% (837/1,927) against Martin Perez this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has a strike rate of just 63% (1,221/1,927) against right-handed batters this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — ninth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Astros are 72-18 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Astros are 41-6 (.872) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Astros are 4-35 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Astros are 51-3 (.944) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rangers are just 46-8 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are 9-8 (.529) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 17-56 (.233) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Rangers are just 43-8 (.843) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 630 strikeouts in 3,497 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,183 strikeouts in 11,142 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 250 strikeouts in 1,416 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 514 strikeouts in 2,818 PA’s (18%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .302 (3,261 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .647 (3,568 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Rangers on 65% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.. *
Rangers hitters have pulled 52% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 107 of 1,142 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 452 of 4,876 batters (9%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 24 of 241 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (27 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Right Elbow, D15
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Spencer Howard (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
- Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Side, D15
- Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Finger, D15
- Cole Ragans (Rangers): Calf, D15
- Martín Maldonado (Astros): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Pressly (Astros): Neck, D15
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Justin Verlander (Astros): Calf, D15
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
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