- The Rangers are -145 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: Shawn Dubin
- Rangers starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Houston Astros (+120) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-145) on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Astros vs Rangers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 45-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 51-32 ATS.
Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -165 | O 9.5 -120 | +120 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +140 | U 9.5 +100 | -145 |
Astros vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 80% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+20.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+14.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+12.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ezequiel Duran has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Rangers vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rangers vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Rangers vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Rangers vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 52 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 away games (+8.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+6.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 away games (+5.95 Units / 12% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 75 games (+28.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 75 games (+27.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 75 games (+24.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 75 games (+23.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 43-40 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 0.51% ROI).
- 45-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -4.22% ROI
- 41-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -3.64% ROI
- 40-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -5.35% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 51-32 against the Run Line (+20.3 Units / 19.6% ROI).
- 50-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +10 Units / 8.41% ROI
- 44-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +8 Units / 8.76% ROI
- 33-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.45 Units / -16.89% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shawn Dubin has allowed an OPS of .983 (25 PA’s) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 11th highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .675 — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 67% (12/18) against Shawn Dubin with two-strikes — tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 56% of Shawn Dubin’s pitches (58/104) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 10th highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 48% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (21/53) against Shawn Dubin over the last 14 days (2 games) — tied for 9th highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 30% — 91st Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (19 Total Bases / 27 ABs) with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .221 (32-for-145) against Andrew Heaney when he’s behind in the count since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .225 (18-for-80) against Andrew Heaney when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 98th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed an OPS of 1.037 (30 PA’s) with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .476 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Astros are 103-11 (.904) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Astros are just 2-7 (.222) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Astros are 74-49 (.602) on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Astros are 44-30 (.595) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rangers are just 0-23 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Rangers are just 1-108 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Rangers are just 52-40 (.565) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Rangers are 43-8 (.843) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 837 strikeouts in 4,710 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 457 strikeouts in 2,629 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros have won 91% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .368 (870 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Rangers hitters are slugging .322 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Rangers hitters are slugging .483 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rangers hitters are slugging .500 at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.03 (1108.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.94.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 200 of 2,181 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have an ERA of 3.56 (346.1 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
The Rangers have won 57% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Rangers pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- José Leclerc (Rangers): Ankle, D15
- Jeremy Peña (Astros): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Framber Valdez (Astros): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D60
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