- The Astros are -110 favorites vs the Rangers
- Astros starting pitcher: Jonathan France
- Rangers starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros (-110) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-110) on Monday, September 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Astros vs Rangers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 77-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 73-62 ATS.
Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -105 | -110 |
| Rangers | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 -115 | -110 |
Astros vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+13.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+11.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 47 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 27 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+9.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.25 Units / 46% ROI)
Rangers vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Rangers vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Rangers vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Rangers vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Andrew Heaney | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 67 away games (+13.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 43 away games (+10.73 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 away games (+8.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+7.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+18.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 71 of their last 128 games (+18.42 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 128 games (+17.48 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 63 games at home (+15.28 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+13.25 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 69-69 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -0.82% ROI).
- 77-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -2.58% ROI
- 71-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.1% ROI
- 64-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -13 Units / -8.66% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 73-62 against the Run Line (+11.9 Units / 7.17% ROI).
- 76-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.16% ROI
- 68-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.43% ROI
- 61-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -9.12% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (9/71) against J.P. France with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
J.P. France has a strikeout rate of just 11% (11 SO in 101 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (92/425) against J.P. France this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (21/169) against J.P. France on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Heaney had a strike rate of 74% (60/81) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 56% (404/726) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (108 balls in play) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Andrew Heaney has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 53% (247/464) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros are 48-34 (.585) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Astros are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Astros are 93-57 (.620) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rangers are just 2-129 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rangers are 22-16 (.579) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Rangers were just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are just 114-25 (.820) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .869.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 978 strikeouts in 5,437 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .185 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Astros have won 90% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have just 598 strikeouts in 3,356 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters are slugging .305 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .352 (1,384 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Rangers hitters are slugging .462 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Rangers hitters are slugging .493 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.81 (605.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Rangers pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers have walked 232 of 2,646 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Rangers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D10
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Jung (Rangers): Thumb, D10
- Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers): Elbow, D15
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
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