- The Rays are -185 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Houston Astros (+150) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-185) on Tuesday, April 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Astros vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 12-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 17-6 ATS.
Astros vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -120 | +150 |
| Rays | -1.5 +110 | U 8 +100 | -185 |
Astros vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 18 games (+15.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+14.55 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+11.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 88% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.70 Units / 108% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 73% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.35 Units / 25% ROI)
Rays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Rays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Rays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
| Luis Garcia | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 23 games (+16.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+13.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 13-10 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 4.74% ROI).
- 12-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -15.9% ROI
- 15-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 29.05% ROI
- 7-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.4 Units / -37.15% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 17-6 against the Run Line (+12.05 Units / 44.96% ROI).
- 20-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.2 Units / 36.53% ROI
- 13-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 20.92% ROI
- 7-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.65 Units / -30% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of .859 (67 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on low fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Garcia has thrown his cutter 56% of the time (57/102) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total CUT; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia has thrown his cutter 48% of the time (41/86) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total CUT; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 63% (24/38) against Luis Garcia with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has a strikeout rate of 42% (8 SO in 19 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 94th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .497 (85 PA’s) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .704 — 95th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has walked 6 of 48 right-handed batters (12%) this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .314 (51 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .508 — 89th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Astros are 38-20 (.655) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Astros are just 0-9 (.000) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Astros are 41-61 (.402) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Astros are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .039.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rays are 2-3 (.400) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Rays are 2-3 (.400) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Rays are 2-3 (.400) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Rays are 4-3 (.571) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 357 strikeouts in 2,085 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 737 strikeouts in 4,166 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have scored 54 runs in innings 7-9 this season — most in MLB.
Astros hitters are slugging .450 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .536 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .896 (891 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Rays hitters are slugging 1.023 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Rays hitters are slugging .554 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (1652.0 IP) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.12 (799.0 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .298 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Rays pitchers have walked 454 of 6,754 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents are hitting just .192 against Rays pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Rays pitchers have walked 185 of 3,110 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Lat, D15
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Back, D10
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