Astros vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 19

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 19, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Rays (82-64) are -125 favorites vs the Astros (96-51)
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (12-8), 4.04 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (10-5), 2.77 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Houston Astros (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Monday, September 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).

The Astros vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 94-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 69-71 ATS.

Astros vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros+1.5 -200O 7 -120+105
Rays -1.5 +170U 7 +100-125

Astros vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Monday‘s matchup with 54.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+12.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games at home (+11.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Harold Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.10 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 45% ROI)

Rays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jonathan Aranda 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jose Siri 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Rays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Harold Ramirez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jonathan Aranda 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Jose Siri 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Randy Arozarena 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Rays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
David Peralta 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jonathan Aranda 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jose Siri 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Rays vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Drew Rasmussen 4.5 +120 4.5 -175
Luis Garcia 4.5 -140 4.5 -105
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 47 away games (+19.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 away games (+9.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 26 games (+4.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games at home (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+8.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 19% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 76-68 against the Run Line (+8.25 Units / 4.86% ROI).

  • 94-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 4.46% ROI
  • 51-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -40.05 Units / -25.39% ROI
  • 84-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +27.5 Units / 17.24% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 69-71 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.18% ROI).

  • 79-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -1.29% ROI
  • 64-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -6.98% ROI
  • 70-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.09% ROI

Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (52 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .429 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .415 (27-for-65) against Luis Garcia on low fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .276 — fourth Percentile.

The average home run distance against Luis Garcia this season is 385.0 feet — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 398.1

Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .202 (119 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 100th Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .575 (78 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 1.030 — 100th Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .540 (337 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .690 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% (64/134) against Drew Rasmussen on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .272 (92-for-338) against Drew Rasmussen in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 99th Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Astros are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 37-14 (.725) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Astros are 46-7 (.868) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Astros are 12-8 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Rays are 33-8 (.805) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Rays are just 69-9 (.885) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Rays are 49-25 (.662) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Rays are 24-103 (.189) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .125.

Astros hitters have just 677 strikeouts in 3,777 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 807 strikeouts in 4,437 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Rays hitters have an OBP of .414 (87 PA’s) against LHP this month (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .305.

Rays hitters have put 51% of their swings in play against LHP this month (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Rays hitters have just 8 strikeouts in 81 PA’s (10%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rays hitters have just 8 strikeouts in 87 PA’s (9%) against LHP this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.10 (648.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

Rays pitchers have walked 777 of 11,318 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 157 of 2,758 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 64 of 1,296 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays pitchers have walked 945 of 13,530 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.