- The Rays (82-64) are -125 favorites vs the Astros (96-51)
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (12-8), 4.04 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (10-5), 2.77 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Houston Astros (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Monday, September 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Astros vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 94-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 69-71 ATS.
Astros vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -200 | O 7 -120 | +105 |
| Rays | -1.5 +170 | U 7 +100 | -125 |
Astros vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Monday‘s matchup with 54.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+12.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games at home (+11.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 45% ROI)
Rays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Rays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peralta | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
| Luis Garcia | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 47 away games (+19.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 away games (+9.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 26 games (+4.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games at home (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+8.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 76-68 against the Run Line (+8.25 Units / 4.86% ROI).
- 94-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 4.46% ROI
- 51-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -40.05 Units / -25.39% ROI
- 84-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +27.5 Units / 17.24% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 69-71 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.18% ROI).
- 79-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -1.29% ROI
- 64-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -6.98% ROI
- 70-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.09% ROI
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (52 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .429 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .415 (27-for-65) against Luis Garcia on low fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .276 — fourth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Luis Garcia this season is 385.0 feet — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 398.1
Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .202 (119 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .575 (78 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 1.030 — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .540 (337 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .690 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% (64/134) against Drew Rasmussen on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .272 (92-for-338) against Drew Rasmussen in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 99th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Astros are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 37-14 (.725) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Astros are 46-7 (.868) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Astros are 12-8 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rays are 33-8 (.805) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Rays are just 69-9 (.885) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 49-25 (.662) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Rays are 24-103 (.189) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .125.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 677 strikeouts in 3,777 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 807 strikeouts in 4,437 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OBP of .414 (87 PA’s) against LHP this month (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Rays hitters have put 51% of their swings in play against LHP this month (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Rays hitters have just 8 strikeouts in 81 PA’s (10%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters have just 8 strikeouts in 87 PA’s (9%) against LHP this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.10 (648.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 777 of 11,318 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 157 of 2,758 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 64 of 1,296 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 945 of 13,530 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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