- The Astros are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Astros vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Red Sox TV Channel: ATV
The Houston Astros (-145) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Friday, August 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Astros are 62-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 59-50 ATS.
Astros vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 9-5, 2.54 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 12-4, 2.25 ERA
Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -110 | -145 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -135 | U 8 -110 | +120 |
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+13.40 Units / 88% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.40 Units / 310% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.60 Units / 77% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 109 games (+17.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 away games (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 31 away games (+10.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 101 games (+7.17 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 76 games (+7.15 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+14.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 92 games (+12.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games at home (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+8.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 55-54 against the Run Line (+2.52 Units / 1.84% ROI).
- 62-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 2.66% ROI
- 46-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.1 Units / -13.5% ROI
- 57-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.4 Units / 5.3% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 59-50 against the Run Line (+7.8 Units / 5.55% ROI).
- 59-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.51 Units / -0.34% ROI
- 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.86 Units / -8.97% ROI
- 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.29% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right handed batters are hitting just .206 (43-for-209) against Hunter Brown this season — tied for eighth best among qualified SPs– 88th Percentile. Right handed batters hit .279 (85-for-305) against him last season — fifth worst among qualified SPs– ninth Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of just .150 (274 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .107 (28-for-261) against Hunter Brown with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (274/484) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet has 46 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has allowed a slugging percentage of just .141 (13 Total Bases / 92 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 98th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has allowed an OPS of just .308 (131 PA’s) on non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .646 — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has allowed a slugging percentage of just .171 (22 Total Bases / 129 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are 27-23 (.540) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Astros are 58-17 (.773) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Astros are 42-31 (.575) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (Ranks fourth runs scored) today.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are 50-3 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 56-179 (.238) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Astros are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have a swing rate of just 23% on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Red Sox are batting .260 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox hitters have 61 extra-base hits out of 134 total hits (46%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Astros have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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