Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 11

Boston Red Sox's Jarren Duran plays against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 5, 2023, in Boston.
(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
  • The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Astros vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10 Runs
  • Astros / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | SCHN

The Houston Astros (-130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Sunday, August 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Astros are 61-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 54-61 ATS.

Astros vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 9-7, 4.03 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton 9-3, 4.46 ERA

Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 +120O 10 -105-130
Red Sox +1.5 -145U 10 -115+110

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 61.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 away games (+22.50 Units / 125% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+16.35 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.05 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.85 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 41 games (+18.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 47 games (+18.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+16.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+13.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+10.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+20.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 115 games (+6.60 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 115 games (+6.15 Units / 4% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 58-58 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 0.63% ROI).

  • 61-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -5.92% ROI
  • 46-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.1 Units / -21.36% ROI
  • 67-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.2 Units / 12.6% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 54-61 against the Run Line (-14.7 Units / -9.59% ROI).

  • 61-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 0.39% ROI
  • 60-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 4.3% ROI
  • 50-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.55 Units / -12.29% ROI

Red Sox vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 +360 0.5 -500
Jose Altuve (HOU) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Yainer Diaz (HOU) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Alex Bregman (HOU) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700

Red Sox vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mauricio Dubon (HOU) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Connor Wong (BOS) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) 0.5 -175 0.5 +130

Red Sox vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
Yainer Diaz (HOU) 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
Jose Altuve (HOU) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Alex Bregman (HOU) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190

Red Sox vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
James Paxton (BOS) 3.5 -165 3.5 +125
Hunter Brown (HOU) 5.5 -125 5.5 -105

Opponents are hitting .412 (89-for-216) against Hunter Brown in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .323 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (50/171) against Hunter Brown on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .293 (54-for-184) against Hunter Brown when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — eighth Percentile.

Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .319 (461 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 12th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

James Paxton has walked 46 of 361 right-handed batters (13%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

James Paxton has walked 22 of 180 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.

James Paxton has walked 50 of 434 batters (12%) this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.

James Paxton has walked 25 of 167 batters (15%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Astros are 182-25 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Astros are just 10-19 (.345) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 115-32 (.782) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Astros are just 0-41 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .057.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Red Sox are just 5-184 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.

The Red Sox are 109-11 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .858.

The Red Sox are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are 50-10 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .730.

Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

16% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (691/4,388 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.

Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Red Sox are batting .271 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .262 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Red Sox hitters have 379 strikeouts in 1,356 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Red Sox are batting .551 in hitter’s counts over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .354.

Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Astros pitchers this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 56% with two-strikes this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have walked 421 of 4,363 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 168 of 2,471 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 313 of 4,379 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 63 of 1,036 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Red Sox vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
  • Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
  • Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
  • Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
  • Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
  • Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.