- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on NESN
The Houston Astros (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Astros vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 75-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 67-65 ATS.
Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -185 | O 10.5 -115 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | U 10.5 -105 | -125 |
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 55.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+10.70 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+13.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+10.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Red Sox vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
Red Sox vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 65 away games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+8.73 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 65 away games (+5.85 Units / 7% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in their last 12 games (+12.05 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 32 games at home (+3.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.19 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 67-66 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.36% ROI).
- 75-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -1.22% ROI
- 69-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 0.77% ROI
- 61-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -9.52% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-65 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -3.74% ROI).
- 69-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 1.23% ROI
- 68-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.6 Units / 2.49% ROI
- 58-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.4 Units / -12.08% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
J.P. France allowed a batting average of .440 vs right-handed batters (worst)– first Percentile and just .179 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (sixth best among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.
J.P. France has allowed an OBP of .491 (57 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB*; League Avg: .303 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (9/68) against J.P. France with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (87/410) against J.P. France this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 52% (199/380) on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (117/197) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 37% (139/380) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 49% — third Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of .580 (102 Total Bases / 176 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .407 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 36-19 (.655) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Astros are 125-15 (.893) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Astros are 46-34 (.575) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are 52-3 (.945) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Red Sox are 21-11 (.656) after a home win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Red Sox are just 14-19 (.424) after a home loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Red Sox are 32-31 (.508) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 971 strikeouts in 5,407 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 591 strikeouts in 3,326 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Astros hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .316 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Red Sox are batting .298 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .277 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 34% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,839 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in late innings this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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