- The Red Sox are -165 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: Shawn Dubin, 10.80 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Watch the game on NESN
The Houston Astros (+140) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-165) on Saturday, March 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Astros vs Red Sox Over/Under is 12.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Astros are 3-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 6-1 ATS.
Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -125 | O 12.5 +100 | +140 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +105 | U 12.5 -120 | -165 |
Astros vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jason Castro has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.70 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 16.26% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 31.58% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -24.78% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 15.89% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 6-1 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 62.78% ROI).
- 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 65.66% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 22.44% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -30.26% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shawn Dubin is making his MLB debut today.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke had a strikeout rate of just 18% (9/50) with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke struck out just 9% (21/241) of left-handed batters he faced last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke had a strikeout rate of just 14% (41/282) on low non-fastballs last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has thrown low pitches 69% of the time (933/1,354) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 99th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Red Sox vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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