• The Reds are -170 favorites vs the Astros
• Astros vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Astros / Reds TV Channel: FS1 | RDTV | SCHN

The Houston Astros (+140) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-170) on May 9, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Astros are 16-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 23-15 ATS.

Astros vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

• Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 4-0, 1.96 ERA
• Reds starting pitcher: Chase Burns 3-1, 2.20 ERA

Astros vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Astros vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Astros vs Reds and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brice Matthews has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+13.90 Units / 154% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Brice Matthews has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+8.20 Units / 91% ROI)
• Brice Matthews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+19.30 Units / 276% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.45 Units / 44% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• Matt McLain has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 57% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+2.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.60 Units / 32% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+7.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 16-23 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -19.05% ROI).

• 16-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.3 Units / -19.66% ROI
• 26-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.3 Units / 28.11% ROI
• 12-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.3 Units / -38.72% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 23-15 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 5.86% ROI).

• 20-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.29% ROI
• 24-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.6 Units / 20.05% ROI
• 14-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.4 Units / -28.9% ROI

Reds vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Astros are just 1-15 (.062) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Astros are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Astros are just 3-12 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .372.

The Astros are just 16-23 (.410) this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Reds are 3-17 (.150) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Reds are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .138.

The Reds are just 12-46 (.207) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

The Reds are just 10-65 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

The Astros are batting .291 on the road this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Astros are batting .343 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .423 (163 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .361 (808 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Reds Hitting Stats & Trends

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .280 (648 PA’s) with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB.

The Reds are batting just .186 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Reds are batting just .202 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Reds are batting just .118 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have walked 13% of batters this season — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Astros pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have allowed three-ball counts to 25% of batters they faced (390/1,549 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 5.67 (341.1 IP) this season — highest in MLB.

Reds Pitching Stats & Trends

Reds pitchers have walked 12% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Reds pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Reds pitchers have a strike rate of just 60% this season — lowest in MLB.

Reds pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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