Astros vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

Reds player Tyler Stephenson looking discontented.
(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
  • The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Reds
  • Astros vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Astros / Reds TV Channel: SCHN | BSOH

The Houston Astros (-145) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+120) on Wednesday, September 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Astros are 75-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 77-62 ATS.

Astros vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 7-11, 4.67 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 6-6, 3.78 ERA

Astros vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 +110O 9 -115-145
Reds +1.5 -135U 9 -105+120

Astros vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


Bet now on Astros vs Reds and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 20 away games (+43.40 Units / 217% ROI)
  • Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+14.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games at home (+23.00 Units / 153% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 28 games (+21.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+16.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+14.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 121 games (+21.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 80 games (+17.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 65 games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 away games (+10.20 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 58 games at home (+15.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 69 of their last 121 games (+12.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 48 games (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 48 games at home (+1.45 Units / 3% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 70-68 against the Run Line (+4.6 Units / 2.72% ROI).

  • 75-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -3.17% ROI
  • 54-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.2 Units / -22.03% ROI
  • 80-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.2 Units / 13.19% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 77-62 against the Run Line (+8.45 Units / 4.6% ROI).

  • 66-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -10 Units / -6.03% ROI
  • 65-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.5 Units / -5.53% ROI
  • 66-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -3.84% ROI

Reds vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 +210 0.5 -250
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Alex Bregman (HOU) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Victor Caratini (HOU) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650

Reds vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Victor Caratini (HOU) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Mauricio Dubon (HOU) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Jonathan India (CIN) 0.5 -225 0.5 +175
Amed Rosario (CIN) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Reds vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 -105 0.5 -125
Yainer Diaz (HOU) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Alex Bregman (HOU) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Tyler Stephenson (CIN) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Victor Caratini (HOU) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210

Reds vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) 5.5 -125 5.5 -105
Nick Martinez (Cin) 3.5 -110 3.5 -115

Spencer Arrighetti has pitched 14.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Raisel Iglesias has the longest active streak at 31.0.

Spencer Arrighetti has walked 16 of 115 batters (14%) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.

Spencer Arrighetti has 36 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 99th Percentile.

Spencer Arrighetti has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 12.1 innings pitched — Griffin Jax has the longest active streak at 17.0.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nick Martinez has walked 3 of 118 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Martinez has allowed a .488 SLG at home (tied for seventh worst)– eighth Percentile and just .330 on the road this season (tied for 12th best among non-qualified SPs)– 90th Percentile.

Nick Martinez has a strike rate of 69% (273/398) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 94th Percentile.

Nick Martinez has thrown his changeup 27% of the time (362/1,341) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 17% — 81st Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Astros are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are just 0-48 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .432.

The Astros are 131-14 (.903) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .858.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.

The Reds are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 64-59 (.520) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.

The Reds are just 6-15 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Games involving the Astros went UNDER in 79% of their games (48.3% ROI) after a loss as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Astros won 63% of their road games in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

The Astros have won 87% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.

Games involving the Astros went UNDER in 58% of their games (14.1% ROI) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

The Reds scored first in just 44% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.

The Reds are 32-15 (.681) against the run line (22.8% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.

The Reds have scored first in just 49% of their road games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.

The Reds are 24-10 (.706) against the run line (31.6% ROI) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

Astros pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 5% of innings played since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Astros pitchers have won 35% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 42% of their games since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 40% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Reds pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Reds pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Reds pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Reds pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 59% of their games in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

Reds vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
  • Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.