Astros vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 04, 2022, 1:59 PM
  • The Astros (34-18) are -200 favorites vs the Royals (16-34)
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (3-3), 3.14 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic (0-3), 12.82 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Houston Astros (-200) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+165) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Astros vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 34-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 19-31 ATS.

Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 -125O 9.5 -110-200
Royals +1.5 +105U 9.5 -110+165

Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.40 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+6.30 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+6.05 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+20.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 36 games (+14.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1H Total Over in 16 of their last 28 games (+3.95 Units / 13% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 26-26 against the Run Line (+1.8 Units / 3.03% ROI).

  • 34-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 13.34% ROI
  • 14-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.6 Units / -43.2% ROI
  • 36-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.9 Units / 36.28% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 19-31 against the Run Line (-23.7 Units / -33.59% ROI).

  • 16-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.25 Units / -31.04% ROI
  • 27-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.15 Units / 7.58% ROI
  • 21-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.9 Units / -16.01% ROI

26 of Luis Garcia’s 51 strikeouts (51%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .137 (51 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .106 (5-for-47) against Luis Garcia with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 98th Percentile.

Luis Garcia has allowed an OPS of just .329 (51 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .680 — 98th Percentile.

Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .716 (146 Total Bases / 204 ABs) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .443 — 0 Percentile.

Kris Bubic has induced opposing hitters to ground into 22 double plays in 119 opportunities (18%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

Kris Bubic has allowed an OBP of .434 (235 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 16% (140/872) against Kris Bubic in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Astros are 17-0 (1.000) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Astros are 20-12 (.625) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .481.

The Astros are 19-1 (.950) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Astros are 27-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .931.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Royals are just 0-19 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

The Royals are just 16-29 (.356) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Royals are just 2-24 (.077) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

The Royals are just 2-16 (.111) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

 

Astros hitters have an OBP of .268 (4,242 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros hitters have just 484 strikeouts in 2,643 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros are batting .191 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Royals hitters have just 419 strikeouts in 2,184 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals hitters have drawn 149 walks in 2,184 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals hitters have drawn 414 walks in 5,676 PA’s (7%) against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals hitters have just 91 strikeouts in 491 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros have allowed 2.75 runs per game (55/20) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.2 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.24 (181.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Royals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Flexor, D15
  • Amir Garrett (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
  • Gabriel Speier (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
  • Cameron Gallagher (Royals): Hamstring, D10
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D10
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D10
  • Matthew Peacock (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
  • Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.