- The Astros (34-19) are -225 favorites vs the Royals (17-34)
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (5-2), 2.57 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (0-2), 4.65 ERA
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Houston Astros (-225) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+180) on Sunday, June 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Astros vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 34-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 20-31 ATS.
Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -135 | O 9 +100 | -225 |
| Royals | +1.5 +110 | U 9 -120 | +180 |
Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 68.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+4.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+6.80 Units / 71% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 51 games (+21.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 37 games (+12.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1H Total Over in 16 of their last 29 games (+2.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1H Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.55 Units / 7% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 26-27 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.74% ROI).
- 34-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 10.21% ROI
- 14-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.65 Units / -44.22% ROI
- 37-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.9 Units / 37.28% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 20-31 against the Run Line (-22.55 Units / -31.52% ROI).
- 17-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.45 Units / -27.09% ROI
- 27-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 5.56% ROI
- 22-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.9 Units / -13.92% ROI
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (120/181) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (77/117) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (117/167) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (107/155) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
No Matchup notes for this Game
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
No Matchup notes for this Game
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros hitters have just 13 strikeouts in 132 PA’s (10%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .268 (4,259 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have drawn 414 walks in 5,710 PA’s (7%) against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals hitters have just 419 strikeouts in 2,185 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Royals have won just 43% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 76%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .300 (5,710 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.24 (181.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.
The Astros have allowed 2.75 runs per game (55/20) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.2 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (927.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Amir Garrett (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
- Gabriel Speier (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
- Cameron Gallagher (Royals): Hamstring, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D10
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D10
- Matthew Peacock (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
- Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
- Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D10
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