- The Astros are -200 favorites vs the Royals
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Houston Astros (-200) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+165) on Friday, September 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Astros vs Royals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 83-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 62-85 ATS.
Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -135 | O 10.5 -110 | -200 |
| Royals | +1.5 +110 | U 10.5 -110 | +165 |
Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 79.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+14.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Chas McCormick has hit the RBIs Over in his last 6 away games (+10.85 Units / 181% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+10.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+10.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+9.60 Units / 50% ROI)
Royals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
Royals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Kyle Tucker | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Royals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Royals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Zack Greinke | 2.5 +120 | 2.5 -160 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 70 away games (+16.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 away games (+13.73 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 70 away games (+11.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 37 away games (+10.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+9.93 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+9.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+7.94 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+6.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 75-72 against the Run Line (+1.8 Units / 0.98% ROI).
- 83-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -2.98% ROI
- 77-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 1.46% ROI
- 67-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.55 Units / -10.35% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 62-85 against the Run Line (-35.95 Units / -20.29% ROI).
- 46-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -37.8 Units / -24.67% ROI
- 71-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -4.3% ROI
- 70-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.15 Units / -5.07% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (70/306) against Cristian Javier since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 37% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (391/1,059) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (18/101) against Cristian Javier when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (36/171) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito allowed a slugging percentage of .542 (198 Total Bases / 365 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 28% (128/456) versus Lucas Giolito in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Lucas Giolito allowed an OBP of .338 (698 PA’s) in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of 32% (88/278) against Lucas Giolito in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros are 88-19 (.822) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 77-43 (.642) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 37-19 (.661) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 31-29 (.517) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Royals are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
Royals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Fermin (Royals): Finger, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Austin Cox (Royals): Knee, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
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