- The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Royals
- Astros starting pitcher: Jonathan France
- Royals starting pitcher: Cole Ragans
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Houston Astros (-150) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+125) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Astros vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 83-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 63-85 ATS.
Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | O 9.5 -120 | -150 |
| Royals | +1.5 -125 | U 9.5 +100 | +125 |
Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 69.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+14.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+11.90 Units / 85% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.30 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.20 Units / 33% ROI)
Royals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Royals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Royals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Royals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Cole Ragans | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Royals Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 75-73 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.27% ROI).
- 83-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -3.81% ROI
- 77-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 0.76% ROI
- 68-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.55 Units / -9.66% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 63-85 against the Run Line (-34.85 Units / -19.56% ROI).
- 47-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -36.15 Units / -23.44% ROI
- 71-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -4.97% ROI
- 71-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.15 Units / -4.42% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (10/75) against J.P. France with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (101/464) against J.P. France this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
J.P. France has a strikeout rate of just 10% (12 SO in 115 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
J.P. France has struck out just 15% (42/280) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cole Ragans has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 27.1 innings pitched — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .195 (42-for-215) against Cole Ragans this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 97th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has allowed a slugging percentage of just .289 (80 Total Bases / 277 ABs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .425 — 100th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to August 18th — Scott Alexander has the longest active streak at 12.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros are 88-19 (.822) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 37-19 (.661) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Astros are 133-15 (.899) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Astros are 96-58 (.623) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Royals are just 32-29 (.525) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 17-12 (.586) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 1,008 strikeouts in 5,620 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 628 strikeouts in 3,539 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .460 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are just 0-1 (.000) against the run line (-100.0% ROI) after a win as favorites this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,745 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .657 (5,808 PA’s) on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.39 (1351.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
The Astros have allowed 3.63 runs per game (559/154) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.19 (1286.0 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Royals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Fermin (Royals): Finger, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Austin Cox (Royals): Knee, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
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