Astros vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 17

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Kansas City Royals' Vinnie Pasquantino at bat during the first inning of a baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays, Monday, April 3, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo.
(AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 17, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Astros are -250 favorites vs the Royals
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Houston Astros (-250) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+190) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).

The Astros vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Astros are 83-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-85 ATS.

Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-2.5 +105O 9.5 -115-250
Royals +2.5 -125U 9.5 -105+190

Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 85.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.55 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Cristian Javier has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.30 Units / 77% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.10 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+12.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Nelson Velazquez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+12.45 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+10.90 Units / 50% ROI)

Royals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Dairon Blanco 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Matt Duffy 0.5 +1150 0.5
Maikel Garcia 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Royals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Dairon Blanco 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Matt Duffy 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Maikel Garcia 1.5 +180 1.5 -250
Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 +180 1.5 -250
Yordan Alvarez 0.5 -250 0.5 +190

Royals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Dairon Blanco 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Matt Duffy 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Maikel Garcia 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +150 0.5 -200

Royals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 5.5 +110 5.5 -145
Jordan Lyles 3.5 -130 3.5 +100
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 75-74 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.27% ROI).

  • 83-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -4.43% ROI
  • 78-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.35% ROI
  • 68-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.7 Units / -10.31% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 64-85 against the Run Line (-33.85 Units / -18.87% ROI).

  • 48-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.9 Units / -22.48% ROI
  • 72-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -4.33% ROI
  • 71-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -5.09% ROI

Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (647/1,052) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (275/497) against Framber Valdez this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.

Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (715/1,516) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jordan Lyles has an ERA of 6.44 (160.2 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.90 — first Percentile.

Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .384 (43-for-112) against Jordan Lyles with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — second Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .512 (164 Total Bases / 320 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .393 — fourth Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

The Astros are 88-20 (.815) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Astros are 96-59 (.619) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Astros are 21-11 (.656) after a road loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .462.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.

The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

The Royals are just 17-12 (.586) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Royals are just 32-29 (.525) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.

Astros hitters have just 1,015 strikeouts in 5,647 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 635 strikeouts in 3,566 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros are batting .186 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.

Astros hitters are slugging .461 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.

The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.

The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Royals hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Royals are batting just .228 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Astros pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have picked-off 16 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.18 (1309.0 IP) on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

Royals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Head, Day-to-Day
  • Freddy Fermin (Royals): Finger, D10
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
  • Austin Cox (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.