- The Astros are -250 favorites vs the Royals
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Houston Astros (-250) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+190) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Astros vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 83-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-85 ATS.
Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -2.5 +105 | O 9.5 -115 | -250 |
| Royals | +2.5 -125 | U 9.5 -105 | +190 |
Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 85.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.55 Units / 90% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.30 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+12.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+12.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+10.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Royals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Royals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Royals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Royals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Royals Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 75-74 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.27% ROI).
- 83-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -4.43% ROI
- 78-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.35% ROI
- 68-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.7 Units / -10.31% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 64-85 against the Run Line (-33.85 Units / -18.87% ROI).
- 48-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.9 Units / -22.48% ROI
- 72-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -4.33% ROI
- 71-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -5.09% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (647/1,052) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (275/497) against Framber Valdez this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (715/1,516) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has an ERA of 6.44 (160.2 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.90 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .384 (43-for-112) against Jordan Lyles with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .512 (164 Total Bases / 320 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .393 — fourth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 88-20 (.815) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 96-59 (.619) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Astros are 21-11 (.656) after a road loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Royals are just 17-12 (.586) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Royals are just 32-29 (.525) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 1,015 strikeouts in 5,647 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 635 strikeouts in 3,566 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .186 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Astros hitters are slugging .461 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Royals hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Royals are batting just .228 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Astros pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have picked-off 16 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.18 (1309.0 IP) on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Royals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Head, Day-to-Day
- Freddy Fermin (Royals): Finger, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Austin Cox (Royals): Knee, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
Bet now on Astros vs Royals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
