- The Astros are -165 favorites vs the Tigers
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Tigers starting pitcher: Alexander Faedo
- Watch the game on BSDET
The Houston Astros (-165) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+140) on Sunday, August 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Detroit.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Astros vs Tigers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 73-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 68-61 ATS.
Astros vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -105 | -165 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -115 | +140 |
Astros vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 77.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+13.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+11.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.30 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+16.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+14.65 Units / 81% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+13.30 Units / 35% ROI)
Tigers vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Tigers vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Tigers vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Tigers vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
| Alex Faedo | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 63 away games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+6.59 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 61% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.23 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 63 games (+5.16 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 119 games (+4.65 Units / 3% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 65-66 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -1.6% ROI).
- 73-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.5 Units / -2.32% ROI
- 67-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -0.58% ROI
- 61-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -8.21% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 68-61 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -1.93% ROI).
- 59-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 4.23% ROI
- 64-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.09% ROI
- 59-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -7.54% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .501 (545 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .710 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .562 (1,157 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .713 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (385/938) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .262 (132 Total Bases / 503 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alex Faedo has allowed a BABIP of .199 this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 100th Percentile.
Alex Faedo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last seven games dating back to May 25th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents are hitting just .195 (37-for-190) against Alex Faedo this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 99th Percentile.
Alex Faedo has allowed an OBP of just .249 (205 PA’s) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Astros are 36-19 (.655) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Astros are 74-40 (.649) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros are 89-57 (.610) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Tigers are just 16-55 (.225) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Tigers are just 62-82 (.431) at home since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Tigers are just 32-44 (.421) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Tigers are 25-6 (.806) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .614.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 585 strikeouts in 3,287 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 965 strikeouts in 5,368 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are slugging .512 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .360.
Astros hitters are slugging .460 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .287 (8,048 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .640 (8,048 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Tigers are batting just .216 on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .639 (3,371 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (2614.2 IP) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
The Astros have allowed 3.63 runs per game (530/146) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Tigers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Graeber Kessinger (Astros): Health and Safety Protocols, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
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