- The Astros (90-50) are -225 favorites vs the Tigers (54-86)
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (14-5), 2.63 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez (3-4), 4.13 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros (-225) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+180) on Monday, September 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Astros vs Tigers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 88-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 62-75 ATS.
Astros vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -125 | O 7 +100 | -225 |
| Tigers | +1.5 +105 | U 7 -120 | +180 |
Astros vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+16.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 39 games (+11.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.50 Units / 69% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Victor Reyes has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Tigers vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Tigers vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
Tigers vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Tigers vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -150 |
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 82 of their last 127 games (+27.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 84 games (+7.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+2.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+13.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 40 games (+4.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.10 Units / 42% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 71-66 against the Run Line (+5.9 Units / 3.69% ROI).
- 88-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 3.47% ROI
- 48-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -39.7 Units / -26.47% ROI
- 81-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +27.9 Units / 18.37% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 62-75 against the Run Line (-24.15 Units / -13.91% ROI).
- 52-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.35 Units / -11.94% ROI
- 53-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.5 Units / -18.1% ROI
- 74-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.5 Units / 10.83% ROI
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (102/146) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (314/465) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (260/382) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 71% (176/249) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Eduardo Rodriguez against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 381.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
The average home run distance against Eduardo Rodriguez against right-handed batters since the start of 2020 is 381.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 399.9
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .375 (39 GB hits out of 104 GBs) against Eduardo Rodriguez with runners on base since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .370 (20 GB hits out of 54 GBs) against Eduardo Rodriguez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Astros are 118-62 (.656) at home since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Astros are 72-13 (.847) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Astros are 104-27 (.794) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 106-25 (.809) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Tigers are 35-6 (.854) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Tigers are just 150-175 (.462) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Tigers are just 56-177 (.240) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Tigers are just 30-98 (.234) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 667 strikeouts in 3,671 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 2,263 strikeouts in 11,532 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .276 (3,706 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .599 (3,706 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .290 (7,937 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .324 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D60
- Jose Cabrera (Tigers): Biceps, D10
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Arm, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Mental Health, D60
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D60
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Justin Verlander (Astros): Calf, D15
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
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