- The Astros (76-43) are -135 favorites vs the White Sox (61-57)
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (9-8), 4.03 ERA
- White Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito (9-6), 4.92 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Houston Astros (-135) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+110) on Thursday, August 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Astros vs White Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 76-43 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 54-64 ATS.
Astros vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +120 | O 8 -105 | -135 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -145 | U 8 -115 | +110 |
Astros vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 73.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jose Urquidy has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 61% ROI)
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 52 of his last 75 games (+26.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 56 of his last 77 games (+22.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 46 of his last 60 games at home (+18.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+16.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 77 games (+16.05 Units / 19% ROI)
White Sox vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
White Sox vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
White Sox vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
White Sox vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
| Luis Garcia | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 106 games (+25.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 117 games (+21.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 63 games (+13.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 103 games (+10.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 100 games (+8.85 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the White Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 64 of their last 118 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in their last 8 games at home (+8.85 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 51 games (+7.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 61-58 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 3.25% ROI).
- 76-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 2.9% ROI
- 44-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.45 Units / -24.2% ROI
- 70-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.4 Units / 16.18% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 54-64 against the Run Line (-10.5 Units / -7.47% ROI).
- 61-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -6.1% ROI
- 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -7.27% ROI
- 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 0.23% ROI
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 20% (35/177) against Luis Garcia this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 38% (232/608) against Luis Garcia on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (120/325) against Luis Garcia this season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 14th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 41% of Luis Garcia’s non-fastballs (534/1,314) since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 49% — third Percentile.
Lucas Giolito: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito has thrown his changeup 36% of the time (381/1,050) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed an OPS of .953 (279 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .710 — first Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed an OBP of .357 (28 PA’s) with two-strikes — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .228 — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .327 (82-for-251) against Lucas Giolito this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .250 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Astros are 39-6 (.867) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Astros are 47-3 (.940) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Astros are 4-32 (.111) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Astros are 30-4 (.882) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The White Sox are 31-27 (.534) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The White Sox are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The White Sox are 50-4 (.926) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The White Sox are just 5-42 (.106) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 753 strikeouts in 4,120 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 623 strikeouts in 3,460 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have scored 1.05 runs per game (125/119) in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.40.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The White Sox are batting just .157 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .226.
The White Sox are batting just .136 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
The White Sox are batting .368 in hitter’s counts since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The White Sox are batting .259 on the road since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.6 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.6
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have walked 67 of 1,056 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (499.0 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against White Sox pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
White Sox vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
- Timothy Anderson (White Sox): Finger, D10
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Bummer (White Sox): Lat, D15
- Luis Robert (White Sox): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60
- Leury García (White Sox): Back, D10
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
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