The Astros have a win total of 86.5 entering the 2026 season, based on the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Astros Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 86.5 wins: -105
- Under 86.5 wins: -115
Astros Win Total Prediction 2026
- Under 86.5 wins
Per the updated MLB odds, I like the under on the Astros’ win total of 86.5 ahead of the 2026 season.
The market is expecting a bounce-back campaign for the Astros, who won 87 games and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. But I’m skeptical of Houston’s chances of returning to form.
For one, most projections seem to be lower on the Astros in 2026. ATC, a composite projection system available at FanGraphs, has Houston finishing third in the division with 80.7 wins. Most of the systems at FanGraphs forecast this team finishing in the low-80s.
When I look at this roster, I see more downside risk. The middle-of-the-order trio of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Christian Walker is all over 31. Yordan Alvarez, the team’s best hitter, played just 48 games last year.
If everyone is in form, this lineup could be good enough to contend in the AL West. However, it’s easy to envision the potential cracks after this team ranked 21st in runs scored last year.
On the pitching side of things, the Astros lost one of their top starters in Framber Valdez, who signed with the Detroit Tigers. They brought in Tatsuya Imai from Nippon Professional Baseball, but it’s fair to have questions about the depth behind Hunter Brown.
The Astros’ pitchers were a bit unlucky last year, ranking 14th in FIP and second in xFIP. Even with some potential positive regression, the Astros’ staff ranks 17th in projected WAR for the upcoming season, according to RosterResource at FanGraphs.
Houston has had a successful run over the past decade, but all good things must come to an end eventually.
Astros Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 86.5 | 87 | Over |
| 2024 | 92.5 | 88 | Under |
| 2023 | 95.5 | 90 | Under |
| 2022 | 91.5 | 106 | Over |
| 2021 | 87.5 | 95 | Over |
| 2020 | 34.5 | 29 | Under |
| 2019 | 96.5 | 107 | Over |
| 2018 | 97.5 | 103 | Over |
| 2017 | 90.5 | 101 | Over |
| 2016 | 88.5 | 84 | Under |
| 2015 | 76.5 | 86 | Over |
| 2014 | 62.5 | 70 | Over |
| 2013 | 59.5 | 51 | Under |
| 2012 | 63.5 | 55 | Under |
| 2011 | 71.5 | 56 | Under |
| 2010 | 74.5 | 76 | Over |
| 2009 | 73.5 | 74 | Over |
| 2008 | 75 | 86 | Over |
| 2007 | 78.5 | 73 | Under |
| 2006 | 83.5 | 82 | Under |
| 2005 | 84 | 89 | Over |
| 2004 | 90.5 | 92 | Over |
| 2003 | 89 | 87 | Under |
| 2002 | 87.5 | 84 | Under |
| 2001 | 80.5 | 93 | Over |
| 2000 | 88.5 | 72 | Under |
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