- The Yankees (51-18) are -125 favorites vs the Astros (43-25)
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (7-3), 2.77 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon (8-1), 2.70 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros (+105) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-125) on Thursday, June 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Astros vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 43-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 36-33 ATS.
Astros vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -125 |
Astros vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 50% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+4.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.55 Units / 59% ROI)
Yankees vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Yankees vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Yankees vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
Yankees vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -165 |
| Framber Valdez | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+18.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 55 games (+12.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 52 games (+10.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 49 games (+4.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 59 games (+24.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 65 games (+5.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+3.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 33-35 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.32% ROI).
- 43-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.75 Units / 5.34% ROI
- 22-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.25 Units / -32.7% ROI
- 43-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.65 Units / 24.65% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 36-33 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 4.3% ROI).
- 51-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.05 Units / 16.54% ROI
- 31-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -11.74% ROI
- 36-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 2.84% ROI
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (157/231) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (142/201) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 79% (27/34) against Framber Valdez — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (421/609) against Framber Valdez since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Jameson Taillon against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 399.8
Jameson Taillon has walked 2 of 111 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 9 of 295 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 4 of 182 right-handed batters (2%) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Astros are 24-2 (.923) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Astros are 40-7 (.851) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Astros are 36-2 (.947) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Astros are 23-14 (.622) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Yankees are 29-7 (.806) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Yankees are 20-3 (.870) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .674.
The Yankees are 31-2 (.939) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Yankees are 37-3 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 511 strikeouts in 2,817 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .268 (4,537 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros hitters have just 1,208 strikeouts in 6,004 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 617 walks in 5,985 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .442 this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Yankees hitters are slugging .321 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 81% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (280.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Astros pitchers have walked 22 of 402 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Astros have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.04 (600.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.3 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 60% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have won 70% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Yankees have won 56% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Yankees vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Achilles, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jeremy Peña (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
- Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
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