- The Astros are -275 favorites vs the Athletics
- Athletics starting pitcher: Mason Miller
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Oakland Athletics (+220) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-275) on Monday, September 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Athletics vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Athletics are 43-99 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 74-70 ATS.
Athletics vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Athletics | +2.5 -130 | O 8.5 -115 | +220 |
| Astros | -2.5 +105 | U 8.5 -105 | -275 |
Athletics vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Athletics will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 88.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Athletics and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Athletics players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Athletics Player Prop Bets Today:
- JP Sears has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Zack Gelof has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 39 games (+8.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ryan Noda has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 21 games (+17.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+15.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+14.55 Units / 121% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+12.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Astros vs Athletics Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Allen | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jordan Diaz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Athletics Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Allen | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jordan Diaz | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Astros vs Athletics RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Allen | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jordan Diaz | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Astros vs Athletics Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Athletics Best Bets Today:
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 129 games (+16.03 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 72 away games (+9.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 83 games (+8.67 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 68 away games (+6.93 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 82 games (+5.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games (+14.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 53 of their last 89 games (+13.36 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 71 games (+9.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 109 games (+8.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Athletics Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Athletics have gone 70-72 against the Run Line (-6.85 Units / -4.18% ROI).
- 43-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.55 Units / -20.85% ROI
- 75-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 4.31% ROI
- 61-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.95 Units / -13.52% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 74-70 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 2.12% ROI).
- 82-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -0.71% ROI
- 77-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.85 Units / 3.64% ROI
- 64-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.4 Units / -12.4% ROI
Athletics Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 33% of Mason Miller’s pitches (9/27) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 4th lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 47% — sixth Percentile.
Mason Miller has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 7.1 innings pitched — Cole Ragans has the longest active streak at 27.1.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 8% (1/12) against Mason Miller — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (641/1,038) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .266 (21-for-79) against Framber Valdez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 95th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has had third base stolen on him 7 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Athletics Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Athletics are just 4-7 (.364) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
The Athletics are just 81-60 (.574) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Athletics are just 25-72 (.258) after a loss this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Athletics are just 86-9 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Athletics
The Astros are 87-19 (.821) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 93-16 (.853) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Astros are 37-48 (.435) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Athletics Hitting Stats & Trends
Athletics hitters have an OPS of just .645 (8,128 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Athletics hitters are slugging just .356 against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Athletics are batting just .212 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Athletics are batting just .212 against division opponents since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 993 strikeouts in 5,525 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are slugging .478 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Astros hitters have just 613 strikeouts in 3,444 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Athletics Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Athletics pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .288 against Athletics pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Athletics pitchers have an ERA of 6.26 (592.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Athletics pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% versus the bottom of the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.77 (632.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Astros vs. Athletics Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
- Angel Felipe (Athletics): Elbow, D15
- Richard Lovelady (Athletics): Arm, D60
- James Kaprielian (Athletics): Shoulder, D60
- Austin Pruitt (Athletics): Forearm, D15
- Jeffrey Bleday (Athletics): Knee, D10
- Drew Rucinski (Athletics): Illness, D60
- Zachary Jackson (Athletics): Elbow, D60
- Yacksel Ríos (Athletics): Finger, D60
- Frederic Tarnok (Athletics): Calf, D15
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