- The Astros are -300 favorites vs the Athletics
- Athletics starting pitcher: John Patrick Sears
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Oakland Athletics (+240) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-300) on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+120).
The Athletics vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Athletics are 45-99 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 74-71 ATS.
Athletics vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Athletics | +2.5 -145 | O 8.5 -105 | +240 |
| Astros | -2.5 +120 | U 8.5 -115 | -300 |
Athletics vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 88.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Athletics and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Athletics players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Athletics Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 26 games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- JP Sears has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ryan Noda has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Zack Gelof has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 40 games (+7.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Tony Kemp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+15.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+15.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+13.55 Units / 104% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Astros vs Athletics Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Allen | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Lawrence Butler | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Seth Brown | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tony Kemp | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Astros vs Athletics Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Allen | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Lawrence Butler | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Seth Brown | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Tony Kemp | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
Astros vs Athletics RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Allen | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Lawrence Butler | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Seth Brown | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tony Kemp | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Astros vs Athletics Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| JP Sears | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 |
Athletics Best Bets Today:
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 83 games (+15.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 130 games (+14.53 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 84 games (+9.92 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 69 away games (+7.93 Units / 10% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 53 of their last 90 games (+12.06 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 72 games (+8.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.44 Units / 24% ROI)
Athletics Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Athletics have gone 72-72 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -2.6% ROI).
- 45-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -26 Units / -17.96% ROI
- 75-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.45 Units / 2.78% ROI
- 63-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.9 Units / -12.03% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 74-71 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 1.3% ROI).
- 82-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -1.99% ROI
- 77-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 2.84% ROI
- 65-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.55 Units / -11.77% ROI
Athletics Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (131/444) against JP Sears this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (28/192) against JP Sears on breaking pitches since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (70/263) against JP Sears in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (27/191) against JP Sears on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed a .590 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .236 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (third best among qualified SPs)– 96th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed a batting average of .311 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– 13th Percentile and just .164 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (tied for sixth best among qualified SPs)– 90th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of .846 (22 Total Bases / 26 ABs) against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .373 — first Percentile.
Justin Verlander has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (412/986) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Athletics Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Athletics are just 26-72 (.265) after a loss this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Athletics are just 4-7 (.364) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Athletics are just 82-60 (.577) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Athletics are just 31-63 (.330) after a home loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Athletics
The Astros are 37-19 (.661) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Astros are 132-15 (.898) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Astros are 76-42 (.644) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 151-13 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .870.
Athletics Hitting Stats & Trends
The Athletics are batting just .212 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Athletics hitters are slugging just .157 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Athletics hitters have an OBP of just .286 (5,469 PA’s) at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Athletics are batting just .118 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 999 strikeouts in 5,565 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .185 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Astros hitters have just 619 strikeouts in 3,484 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,289 strikeouts in 11,655 PA’s (20%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Athletics Pitching Stats & Trends
Athletics pitchers have an ERA of 6.21 (609.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Athletics pitchers have walked 62 of 454 batters (14%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Athletics pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Athletics pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (2740.2 IP) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Athletics Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
- Angel Felipe (Athletics): Elbow, D15
- Richard Lovelady (Athletics): Arm, D60
- James Kaprielian (Athletics): Shoulder, D60
- Austin Pruitt (Athletics): Forearm, D15
- Jeffrey Bleday (Athletics): Knee, D10
- Drew Rucinski (Athletics): Illness, D60
- Zachary Jackson (Athletics): Elbow, D60
- Yacksel Ríos (Athletics): Finger, D60
- Frederic Tarnok (Athletics): Calf, D15
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