- The Guardians are -190 favorites vs the Athletics
- Athletics starting pitcher: Kenneth Waldichuk, 16.87 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale, 3.00 ERA
The Oakland Athletics (+155) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-190) on Saturday, March 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Goodyear.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Athletics vs Guardians Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Athletics are 3-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 3-6 ATS.
Athletics vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Athletics | +1.5 -105 | O 11.5 -110 | +155 |
| Guardians | -1.5 -115 | U 11.5 -110 | -190 |
Athletics vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Athletics and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Athletics Best Bets Today:
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+13.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 79 away games (+9.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 70 away games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 81 games (+8.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 150 games (+8.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 73 games at home (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games at home (+5.96 Units / 9% ROI)
Athletics Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Athletics have gone 4-4 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -10.62% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -12.5% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -2.29% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -2.82% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 3-6 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -34.8% ROI).
- 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -32.58% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -14.65% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 6.57% ROI
Athletics Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ken Waldichuk has pitched 12.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — J.P. Feyereisen has the longest active streak at 24.1.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 34% (29/86) against Ken Waldichuk over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — ninth Percentile.
Ken Waldichuk has not allowed a home run in any of the last 15.2 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 30% (19/64) against Ken Waldichuk over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .592 (74 Total Bases / 125 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .376 — first Percentile.
Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 56% (749/1,340) when ahead in the count since the start of the 2021 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (31/100) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (21/128) against Aaron Civale when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Athletics Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Athletics are just 29-52 (.358) at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Athletics are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Athletics are just 6-14 (.300) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Athletics are just 13-42 (.236) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Athletics
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 52-7 (.881) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Guardians are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Athletics Hitting Stats & Trends
Athletics hitters are slugging just .164 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Athletics hitters had an OBP of just .278 (2,878 PA’s) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Athletics hitters had an OPS of just .604 (2,878 PA’s) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Athletics are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Athletics Pitching Stats & Trends
The Athletics have won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Athletics have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Athletics pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Athletics pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians vs. Athletics Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Oakland Athletics – No Injuries Reported
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