- The Mariners (86-70) are -225 favorites vs the Athletics (56-101)
- Athletics starting pitcher: John Patrick Sears (6-3), 4.21 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (7-6), 3.05 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Oakland Athletics (+180) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-225) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Athletics vs Mariners Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Athletics are 56-101 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 81-75 ATS.
Athletics vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Athletics | +1.5 -120 | O 6.5 +100 | +180 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +100 | U 6.5 -120 | -225 |
Athletics vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Athletics and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Athletics Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Athletics players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vimael Machin has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+10.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Conner Capel has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.80 Units / 123% ROI)
- Paul Blackburn has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Vimael Machin has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+9.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 45 of his last 63 games at home (+13.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
Mariners vs Athletics Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Sam Haggerty | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Conner Capel | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Mariners vs Athletics Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Sam Haggerty | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Conner Capel | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
Mariners vs Athletics RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Sam Haggerty | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Conner Capel | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Mariners vs Athletics Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Athletics Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+11.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+10.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 away games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 68 away games (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games at home (+20.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 88 games (+15.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+14.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+6.77 Units / 19% ROI)
Athletics Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Athletics have gone 76-81 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -9.64% ROI).
- 56-101 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -11.73% ROI
- 71-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.4 Units / -9.98% ROI
- 80-71 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 1.37% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Athletics have gone 81-75 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -2.52% ROI).
- 86-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 71-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -7.83% ROI
- 78-71 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.29% ROI
John Patrick Sears: Athletics Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
JP Sears has limited playing time.
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
58% of Luis Castillo’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to September 2nd — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 7.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 47% (59 SO in 125 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .101 (11-for-109) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 99th Percentile.
Athletics Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Athletics are just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Athletics are just 7-46 (.132) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Athletics are just 54-86 (.386) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Athletics are just 43-12 (.782) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Athletics
The Mariners are 44-37 (.543) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Mariners are 57-10 (.851) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Mariners are 38-6 (.864) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Mariners are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Athletics Hitting Stats & Trends
Athletics hitters are slugging just .165 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Athletics hitters have an OBP of just .279 (4,213 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Athletics hitters have an OBP of just .277 (2,762 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Athletics hitters have an OPS of just .605 (2,762 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .164 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .217 at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Athletics Pitching Stats & Trends
The Athletics have won just 17% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Athletics pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Athletics have won just just 10% of the time at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Athletics have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The average home run distance against the Mariners pitchers since the start of last season is 395.6 feet — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4
Mariners vs. Athletics Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Collin Wiles (Athletics): Shoulder, D15
- Dany Jiménez (Athletics): Shoulder, D60
- Daulton Jefferies (Athletics): Arm, D60
- Zachary Jackson (Athletics): Shoulder, D15
- Paul Blackburn (Athletics): Finger, D60
- Samuel Moll (Athletics): Shoulder, D15
- Ramón Laureano (Athletics): Hamstring, D10
- Joel Payamps (Athletics): Lumbar, D15
- Deolis Guerra (Athletics): Elbow, D60
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