Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 18, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Blue Jays are -105 favorites vs the Astros
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
  • Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Toronto Blue Jays (-105) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-115) on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Blue Jays vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Blue Jays are 10-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 9-8 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +150O 9 -105-105
Astros +1.5 -185U 9 -115-115

Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+9.25 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 12 games (+12.10 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+10.40 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.55 Units / 33% ROI)

Astros vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
George Springer 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Astros vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 1.5 +195 1.5 -275
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 -185 0.5 +135
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
George Springer 1.5 +185 1.5 -250
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Astros vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
George Springer 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +210 0.5 -275

Astros vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Bassitt 4.5 +115 4.5 -150
Jose Urquidy 5.5 +125 5.5 -165
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.05 Units / 20% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -13.69% ROI).

  • 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 3.65% ROI
  • 9-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 7.61% ROI
  • 7-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -16.8% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 9-8 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.23% ROI).

  • 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -26.54% ROI
  • 12-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.5 Units / 34.57% ROI
  • 5-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -43.55% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (100/564) against Chris Bassitt since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has walked 7 of 39 right-handed batters (18%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed an OPS of 1.280 (31 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .706 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (9/70) against Chris Bassitt this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Urquidy has a strikeout rate of just 35% (147 SO in 416 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (201/549) against Jose Urquidy since last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has had second base stolen on him 4 times this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.

4 of Jose Urquidy’s 13 strikeouts (31%) have come on changeups this season — tied for 14th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 87th Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Blue Jays are 19-17 (.528) as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Blue Jays are 43-37 (.538) as underdogs since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

The Blue Jays are 38-23 (.623) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.

The Blue Jays are 38-56 (.404) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Astros are 32-18 (.640) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Astros were 31-15 (.674) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

The Astros are just 0-7 (.000) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Astros are 31-17 (.646) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .545.

Blue Jays hitters have just 294 strikeouts in 1,494 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Blue Jays are batting .268 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

The Blue Jays are batting .373 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Blue Jays hitters have 12 extra-base hits out of 58 total hits (just 21%) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Astros hitters have just 727 strikeouts in 4,115 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 347 strikeouts in 2,034 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 26 strikeouts in 184 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 487 of 6,749 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 102 of 1,605 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.82 (835.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
  • Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
  • Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
  • Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.