- The Blue Jays are -115 favorites vs the Astros
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Toronto Blue Jays (-115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-105) on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Blue Jays vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 9-9 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +145 | O 9 -115 | -115 |
| Astros | +1.5 -175 | U 9 -105 | -105 |
Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+10.55 Units / 88% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 13 games (+13.10 Units / 78% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+11.55 Units / 89% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
Astros vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Astros vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
| Luis Garcia | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.20 Units / 11% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 9-9 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -6.55% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 7.18% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 1.54% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -10.92% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 9-9 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -7.34% ROI).
- 8-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -29.27% ROI
- 12-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 27.14% ROI
- 6-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -36.04% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has an ERA of 6.87 (90.1 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 4.05 — first Percentile.
Jose Berrios has thrown inside pitches 36% of the time (303/847) with two-strikes since last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 90th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (924/2,958) since last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 87th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (19/32) against Jose Berrios in late innings since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 38% — first Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of .855 (65 Total Bases / 76 ABs) on low fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Garcia has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 33% (9/27) of right-handed hitters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Luis Garcia has thrown his cutter 52% of the time (37/71) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total CUT; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia allowed a slugging percentage of .822 (60 Total Bases / 73 ABs) on low fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Blue Jays are 39-24 (.619) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Blue Jays are 32-27 (.542) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Blue Jays are 52-41 (.559) on the road since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Blue Jays are 75-4 (.949) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Astros are just 0-8 (.000) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Astros are 46-17 (.730) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .651.
The Astros are 102-2 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Astros are just 2-55 (.035) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .267 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Blue Jays are batting .264 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Blue Jays are batting .190 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Blue Jays are batting .184 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 347 strikeouts in 2,037 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 727 strikeouts in 4,118 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 26 strikeouts in 187 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 488 of 6,786 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 102 of 1,614 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 10 of 159 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (764.0 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.95 (1608.0 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Astros vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
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