Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 19

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 19, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Blue Jays are -115 favorites vs the Astros
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Toronto Blue Jays (-115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-105) on Wednesday, April 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Blue Jays vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Blue Jays are 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 9-9 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +145O 9 -115-115
Astros +1.5 -175U 9 -105-105

Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+10.55 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.20 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 67% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 13 games (+13.10 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+11.55 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.90 Units / 99% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)

Astros vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
George Springer 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Matt Chapman 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Danny Jansen 0.5 +375 0.5 -650

Astros vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
George Springer 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Matt Chapman 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Danny Jansen 0.5 -140 0.5 +105

Astros vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
George Springer 0.5 +175 0.5 -225
Matt Chapman 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Danny Jansen 0.5 +195 0.5 -250

Astros vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Berrios 4.5 -140 4.5 +110
Luis Garcia 5.5 +110 5.5 -140
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.20 Units / 11% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 9-9 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -6.55% ROI).

  • 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 7.18% ROI
  • 9-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 1.54% ROI
  • 8-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -10.92% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 9-9 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -7.34% ROI).

  • 8-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -29.27% ROI
  • 12-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 27.14% ROI
  • 6-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -36.04% ROI

Jose Berrios has an ERA of 6.87 (90.1 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 4.05 — first Percentile.

Jose Berrios has thrown inside pitches 36% of the time (303/847) with two-strikes since last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 90th Percentile.

Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (924/2,958) since last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 87th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (19/32) against Jose Berrios in late innings since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 38% — first Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Garcia has allowed a slugging percentage of .855 (65 Total Bases / 76 ABs) on low fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.

Luis Garcia has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 33% (9/27) of right-handed hitters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Luis Garcia has thrown his cutter 52% of the time (37/71) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total CUT; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Garcia allowed a slugging percentage of .822 (60 Total Bases / 73 ABs) on low fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Blue Jays are 39-24 (.619) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Blue Jays are 32-27 (.542) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.

The Blue Jays are 52-41 (.559) on the road since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Blue Jays are 75-4 (.949) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Astros are just 0-8 (.000) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.

The Astros are 46-17 (.730) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .651.

The Astros are 102-2 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .955.

The Astros are just 2-55 (.035) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.

The Blue Jays are batting .267 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

The Blue Jays are batting .264 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Blue Jays are batting .190 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Blue Jays are batting .184 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Astros hitters have just 347 strikeouts in 2,037 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 727 strikeouts in 4,118 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 26 strikeouts in 187 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 488 of 6,786 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 102 of 1,614 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 10 of 159 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (764.0 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.95 (1608.0 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.

Astros vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
  • Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
  • Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
  • Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.