- The Mariners are -115 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Toronto Blue Jays (-105) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-115) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Blue Jays vs Mariners Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 54-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 45-51 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | -105 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -115 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 55.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 36 of his last 46 games (+15.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+11.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+9.90 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.15 Units / 71% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.80 Units / 98% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 84% ROI)
Mariners vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 72 games (+17.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 away games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.55 Units / 36% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+5.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 46 games at home (+3.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 44-53 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -10.2% ROI).
- 54-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -4.63% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -11.92% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 3.41% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 45-51 against the Run Line (-9.4 Units / -7.54% ROI).
- 48-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.75 Units / -10.65% ROI
- 48-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -2.67% ROI
- 46-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -6.15% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – away
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has an average spin rate of 2607.0 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 2242.9 — 99th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed an OBP of just .236 (165 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .187 (25-for-134) against Bryce Miller this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .217 (38-for-175) against Bryce Miller on pitches in the strike zone this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Blue Jays are 7-3 (.700) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Blue Jays are 24-31 (.436) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Blue Jays are 105-9 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Blue Jays are 28-19 (.596) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mariners are 19-12 (.613) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 29-3 (.906) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 62-9 (.873) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 112-3 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .378 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays hitters have 45 extra-base hits out of 171 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Blue Jays are batting .369 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Blue Jays hitters have just 140 strikeouts in 728 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have 711 strikeouts in 2,747 PA’s (26%) against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mariners are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 718 of 9,726 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.38 (431.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 247 of 3,554 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 698 of 9,584 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Side, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
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