- The Blue Jays are -135 favorites vs the Mariners
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Toronto Blue Jays (-135) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+115) on Saturday, July 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Blue Jays vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 54-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 45-52 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -110 | -135 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 -110 | +115 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 47 games (+16.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+15.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+12.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 43 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.40 Units / 62% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games at home (+8.20 Units / 164% ROI)
Mariners vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -115 |
| Logan Gilbert | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 73 games (+18.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.55 Units / 38% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+11.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+4.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+2.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 15 games (+1.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 45-53 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -9.21% ROI).
- 54-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -5.33% ROI
- 42-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.75 Units / -12.78% ROI
- 51-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 4.3% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 45-52 against the Run Line (-10.4 Units / -8.28% ROI).
- 49-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.75 Units / -9.84% ROI
- 48-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -3.62% ROI
- 47-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.45 Units / -5.14% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .155 (37 Total Bases / 239 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 33% (153 SO in 470 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OBP of just .158 (284 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has struck out 35% (94/270) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .217 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — third best among qualified SPs– 96th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .160 (244 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .258 (449 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 97th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (390/914) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
keys to the game – away
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mariners are just 4-21 (.160) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mariners are 63-9 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Mariners are 108-5 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Mariners are 19-12 (.613) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have 45 extra-base hits out of 173 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Blue Jays are batting .377 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Blue Jays are batting .261 on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Blue Jays hitters have just 391 strikeouts in 1,986 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .121 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Mariners are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Mariners are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Mariners are batting just .216 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 13 of 81 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 723 of 9,766 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 21% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 253 of 3,592 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 704 of 9,622 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
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