- The Blue Jays are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Marlins starting pitcher: Bryan Hoeing
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Toronto Blue Jays (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Monday, June 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Blue Jays vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Blue Jays are 39-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 35-37 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -115 | -160 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -105 | +135 |
Blue Jays vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 72.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 37 games (+20.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+18.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 37 games (+15.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+14.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+12.65 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+12.85 Units / 87% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+12.20 Units / 67% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+10.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Marlins vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Marlins vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +110 |
Marlins vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 48 games (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 28 away games (+0.30 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 61 games (+13.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 33-40 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -11.75% ROI).
- 39-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -5.11% ROI
- 33-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -9.27% ROI
- 37-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.43% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 35-37 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -10.58% ROI).
- 41-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 11.9% ROI
- 32-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -12.11% ROI
- 38-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 3.66% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 11% (10 SO in 89 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Jose Berrios has not allowed a hit to any of the last 38 batters he’s faced after reaching two strikes. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Jose Berrios has located his pitches away 59% of the time (202/345) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 29% of the time (274/929) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 95th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Hoeing has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (77/110) this season — 5th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (15/38) against Bryan Hoeing on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 11th best among among 103 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — 90th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (16/52) against Bryan Hoeing this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .288 (19-for-66) against Bryan Hoeing this season — 14th highest among among 102 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .233 — 13th Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Blue Jays are 19-24 (.442) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Blue Jays are 5-2 (.714) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays are 3-28 (.097) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Blue Jays are 53-75 (.414) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Marlins are 5-27 (.156) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Marlins are just 76-18 (.809) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Marlins are 11-105 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are just 1-15 (.062) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Blue Jays are batting .264 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Blue Jays are batting .376 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays hitters have 30 extra-base hits out of 120 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .657 (3,621 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Marlins are batting .301 against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 77 double plays in 509 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have 185 extra-base hits out of 622 total hits (just 30%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Blue Jays pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 2 of 114 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Jean Segura (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Belt (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
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