• The Nationals are -145 favorites vs the Blue Jays
• Blue Jays vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Blue Jays / Nationals TV Channel: RSN | NATV

The Toronto Blue Jays (+118) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-145) on July 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 pm in Washington, DC.

This season, the Blue Jays are 49-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 64-41 ATS.

Blue Jays vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Blue Jays starting pitcher: Shane Bieber 2-1, 4.70 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Cade Cavalli 7-4, 3.58 ERA

Blue Jays vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:

• George Springer has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+11.90 Units / 132% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
• Nathan Lukes has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 away games (+7.05 Units / 93% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jorbit Vivas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games at home (+17.50 Units / 175% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.95 Units / 30% ROI)
• Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)
• Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)

Blue Jays Best Bets Today:

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 away games (+5.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 away games (+3.95 Units / 19% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games (+5.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+5.15 Units / 9% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 50-56 against the Run Line (-11.35 Units / -8.1% ROI).

• 49-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.15 Units / -15.07% ROI
• 53-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -2.33% ROI
• 51-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -5.74% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 64-41 against the Run Line (+15.9 Units / 11.01% ROI).

• 54-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 9.03% ROI
• 59-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.15 Units / 10.32% ROI
• 43-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.6 Units / -18.34% ROI

Nationals vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Blue Jays are just 5-40 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Blue Jays are just 9-27 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .371.

The Blue Jays were 12-53 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .090.

The Blue Jays are just 5-40 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Nationals are just 22-33 (.400) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Nationals are just 44-12 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .863.

The Nationals are just 1-44 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Nationals are just 1-38 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.

Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends

The Blue Jays have scored in at least three different innings in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB.

The Blue Jays have scored first in just 42% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Blue Jays have won just 66% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Blue Jays have an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals have scored in at least three different innings in 59% of their games this season — tied for highest in MLB.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Nationals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of 61% on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends

Blue Jays pitchers have 184 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.

Blue Jays pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Blue Jays pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (2,585 batted balls) this season — tied for best in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Nationals have allowed 5.21 runs per game (557/107) this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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