Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Blue Jays (91-69) are -105 favorites vs the Orioles (82-78)
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Mitchell White (1-6), 5.21 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Michael Baumann (1-3), 4.34 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Toronto Blue Jays (-105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-115) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Blue Jays vs Orioles Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are 91-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 98-62 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +165O 7.5 -120-105
Orioles +1.5 -200U 7.5 +100-115

Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+14.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alek Manoah has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 48 of his last 72 games (+13.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Orioles vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Alejandro Kirk 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Bo Bichette 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Orioles vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Cedric Mullins 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jorge Mateo 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Alejandro Kirk 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Bo Bichette 1.5 +110 1.5 -155

Orioles vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Alejandro Kirk 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Bo Bichette 0.5 +150 0.5 -225

Orioles vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch White 3.5 +120 3.5 -165
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.65 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.55 Units / 69% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 71-89 against the Run Line (-22.95 Units / -12% ROI).

  • 91-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.1 Units / -5.74% ROI
  • 81-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.86% ROI
  • 75-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.2 Units / -8.55% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 98-62 against the Run Line (+22.45 Units / 10.6% ROI).

  • 82-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +25.25 Units / 14.54% ROI
  • 71-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.05 Units / -10.84% ROI
  • 83-71 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 2.93% ROI

Mitch White has a strikeout rate of just 12% (11 SO in 91 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.

Mitch White has walked 3 of 111 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.

Mitch White has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to September 6th — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 11.

Mitch White has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 4 double plays in 81 opportunities (5%) this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 11% — fifth Percentile.

Michael Baumann: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 63% (17/27) against Michael Baumann — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (11/19) against Michael Baumann against right-handed batters — 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — fifth Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Blue Jays are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Blue Jays are 77-4 (.951) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Blue Jays are just 4-56 (.067) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Blue Jays are 77-19 (.802) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Orioles are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Orioles are 13-68 (.160) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Orioles are 28-7 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Orioles are 8-68 (.105) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Blue Jays hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

The Orioles are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Orioles hitters have 427 strikeouts in 1,702 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Orioles are batting just .153 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 418 of 5,983 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 891 of 11,899 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.76 (1316.2 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 185 of 2,825 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • Félix Bautista (Orioles): Knee, D15
  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Knee, D10
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
  • Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
  • Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Finger, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.