• The Blue Jays are -110 favorites vs the Padres
• Blue Jays vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Blue Jays / Padres TV Channel: PDTV | RSN | TVA | KFMB

The Toronto Blue Jays (-110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-110) on July 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Blue Jays are 45-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-44 ATS.

Blue Jays vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Blue Jays starting pitcher: Trey Yesavage 4-4, 3.32 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 5-5, 5.13 ERA

Blue Jays vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Blue Jays vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:

• Kazuma Okamoto has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+13.65 Units / 171% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nathan Lukes has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Kazuma Okamoto has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 47% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 37% ROI)
• Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+11.30 Units / 283% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+10.65 Units / 50% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)

Blue Jays Best Bets Today:

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 away games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 away games (+6.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+4.45 Units / 10% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+14.10 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+3.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 45 games at home (+1.60 Units / 3% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 46-47 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -2.84% ROI).

• 45-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.6 Units / -11.45% ROI
• 47-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -1.06% ROI
• 44-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -7.06% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-44 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -1.95% ROI).

• 46-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -4.16% ROI
• 40-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -16.49% ROI
• 52-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.25 Units / 7.99% ROI

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Blue Jays are just 5-33 (.132) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Blue Jays are just 9-24 (.273) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .369.

The Blue Jays are 6-38 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .097.

The Blue Jays are 18-91 (.165) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .093.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Padres are 36-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .946.

The Padres are 4-45 (.082) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .054.

The Padres are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .903.

Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends

Blue Jays hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB.

The Blue Jays are batting .188 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

The Blue Jays have scored 109 runs with two outs this season — fewest in MLB.

The Blue Jays are batting just .220 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .652 (1,758 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (3,452 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

The Padres are batting just .225 this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .661 (802 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH this season (2,276 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB

Blue Jays pitchers have 158 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Blue Jays pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (2,276 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 437.3 feet — — shortest in MLB

Padres pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .269 against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .287 against Padres pitchers with runners on base this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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